IPPSA Intelligence

AESO

Stakeholders face a flurry of deadlines and consultations as AESO aligns market design, procurement and connection processes during 2026. Key actions include submitting feedback on Medium Complexity reliability standards by March 26 and alternative internal demand rate proposals by March 31.

The Fast Frequency Response (FFR+) procurement and Financial Transmission Rights (FTR) processes are advancing, with market sounding themes published. Connection timelines for Cluster 3 have shifted from April 30 to August 6, synchronizing with Phase 2A Large Load Integration activities and FFR+ procurement. Participants in the Large Load Integration working group should review Bring Your Own Generation materials and next steps.

A cancellation application for the Buffalo Trail North wind project’s Needs Identification Document was filed on March 24, prompting developers to monitor AUC proceeding.

Critical tariff updates include the release of Information Document ID #2025-003 for Demand Opportunity Service, CIP-004-AB-7 and CIP-011-AB-3 standards taking effect April 1, and stakeholder workshops on tariff and connection process amendments in April. Registration deadlines vary: in-person demand rate workshop requests by March 31 and TRP session requests by April 8.

These coordinated moves aim to streamline procurement, bolster reliability standards and give market participants more time to prepare technical and regulatory submissions.

References:

Alberta Orders in Council on Electricity

Alberta has issued a series of Orders in Council reinforcing both regulatory oversight and structural updates to its electricity system. Key governance actions include the reappointment of Alberta Utilities Commission members and renewal of an acting member pool, ensuring continuity and regulatory capacity as the province navigates major system changes tied to load growth, market reform and reliability pressures. Alongside these appointments, the government enacted Transmission Amendment Regulations under the Electric Utilities Act, signaling ongoing adjustments to how transmission infrastructure is planned, approved or cost-allocated within Alberta’s evolving grid framework.

For the electricity industry, these measures point to a continued focus on regulatory stability and transmission policy refinement at a critical time. Updates to transmission rules may influence project development timelines, connection processes and cost allocation, particularly as large loads and new generation seek grid access. Changes to the Utilities Consumer Advocate framework also suggest attention to ratepayer impacts as system costs rise. Together, these actions indicate Alberta is aligning governance and regulatory tools to support grid expansion, reliability and market evolution in the years ahead.

References:

TransAlta 2026 Investor Day

TransAlta presented a strategic roadmap at its 2026 Investor Day emphasizing Alberta market recovery, data‑centre power development, and disciplined financial growth through 2029. Management expects Alberta demand to rebound materially this decade, driven in particular by incoming data‑centre capacity, and highlighted an MOU to develop dedicated power and land for a CPP Investments/Brookfield‑backed data‑centre project.

The company is prioritizing near‑term, high‑return opportunities such as Alberta data‑centre builds and the Centralia project in the U.S., while maintaining a curated pipeline and remaining open to strategic M&A. TransAlta plans to leverage its diversified generation fleet to support system reliability as large, flexible loads change market dynamics. Financial guidance targets meaningful increases in Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow to 2029, with emphasis on enhancing contracted cash flows to de‑risk growth; disclosures note these are non‑IFRS, forward‑looking metrics subject to risks.

References:

MLI report warns Alberta needs more power generation and grid modernization

Alberta faces a growing risk that a historical electricity surplus could flip to a deficit unless provinces accelerate grid modernization and add generation capacity. A recent policy report warns Canada is falling behind in generation, stressing upgrades to transmission, distribution and planning to accommodate rising demand and preserve reliability. The piece frames local supply concerns alongside international energy risks that are driving global price volatility and underlining supply-chain fragility.

Policy and utility decisions now will shape whether systems remain resilient: investments in new generation, transmission reinforcement, diversified resources and improved planning processes are highlighted as urgent.

References:

Alberta courts AI data-centre giants

Alberta is positioning itself as a leading location for large AI data centres by leveraging abundant electricity capacity, a cold climate that lowers server‑cooling costs, and a low‑tax environment. The provincial government has created a concierge service and is finalizing a formal policy framework with clear criteria and timelines to reduce permitting uncertainty and speed project delivery.

A growing pipeline of multi‑phase, multibillion‑dollar proposals is concentrated along the Calgary–Edmonton corridor, and officials have set an ambitious target of attracting up to $100 billion in related investment over five years. If realized, projects would generate thousands of construction jobs and new corporate‑tax and natural‑gas‑royalty revenue earmarked for public services such as health care and education.

References:

AI Data Center Boom vs. Canada’s Grid

TD writes that rapid AI-driven expansion of data centers is driving a global surge in electricity demand, concentrated in the U.S. and China, and pushing jurisdictions worldwide to compete for investment. Canada’s federal and provincial strategies aim to capture economic gains, but transmission and generation bottlenecks—illustrated by Alberta’s roughly 21 GW of connection requests versus only 1.2 GW reliably available to 2028—threaten near‑term builds.

Similar multi‑year interconnection waits in Europe and U.S. hubs show the problem is widespread. Rising data‑center loads can raise capacity‑market clearing prices and retail bills, as seen in PJM and parts of the U.S., exposing ratepayers unless integration costs are industry‑borne. Policy options include faster interconnection, structured cost allocation, ‘bring your own generation’ models, corporate PPAs with SMRs or offshore wind, and targeted procurement to balance industrial priorities.

References:

Canada and B.C. Move from Hydro Surplus to Power Shortage

Canada is shifting from long-standing electricity abundance toward "managed scarcity" as growing demand, drought-driven hydro declines and policy choices tighten supply. Reduced hydro output in B.C., Quebec and Manitoba pushed Canada from net exporter in 2017 to regular net importer by end-2025, with generation down to 622.2 million MWh in 2024 from 649.4 million MWh in 2017.

In British Columbia Site C, approved 2014 and commissioned 2025, doubled in capital cost to roughly $16 billion but did not eliminate an emerging generation deficit. Policy responses are changing who gets power: B.C.’s Bill 31 forces AI and some data centres to compete for clean electricity while other large users are excluded. Critics warn federal Clean Electricity Regulations and provincial planning assumed past surpluses would persist, discouraging private investment in generation and transmission.

References:

Draft Canada–Alberta Cooperation Agreement

Canada and Alberta have proposed a draft cooperation agreement to streamline environmental impact assessments for projects largely within provincial jurisdiction, designating Alberta as best placed to lead reviews. The deal seeks to eliminate duplicative federal–provincial processes by using a single, provincial-led assessment with coordinated federal roles where the Impact Assessment Act (IAA) still applies.

Key features include a firm two-year timeline from initial project description, IAAC technical support and joint review of federal decision conditions, and deference to applicable provincial conditions where overlap exists. The arrangement preserves federal oversight on effects within federal jurisdiction, though ambiguity over that definition could fuel jurisdictional disputes. Indigenous consultation and the possibility of Indigenous-led assessments remain protected, with commitments to meaningful participation and respect for section 35 rights.

References:

Manitoba Public Utilities Board approves multi-year electricity rate increases

Manitoba’s Public Utilities Board approved a multi-year electricity rate path after drought-driven hydro shortfalls and escalating capital costs left Manitoba Hydro under financial strain. A 4% increase already effective in January is confirmed, with targeted revenue hikes of about 3.5% next January and 3% the following year, subject to variance by customer class.

The board attributed the need to 2025 water flows near the second-lowest in 112 years, reducing hydro generation and forcing reliance on other resources and repairs to aging infrastructure. Regulators also flagged sharply rising project cost estimates underscoring concerns about planning, scope creep and cost escalation.

References:

Saskatchewan approves North–South transmission interconnection

Government approval of SaskPower’s North–South Transmission Systems Interconnection will directly link Saskatchewan’s northern and southern grids via two new transmission lines totaling about 250 kilometres between the E.B. Campbell and Island Falls hydroelectric stations. Conditional federal support of up to $18,075,000 from Natural Resources Canada’s First and Last Mile Fund covers pre‑construction planning, design and early engagement but not construction; an in‑service date near 2032 is targeted.

The project aims to boost energy security and reliability for remote communities and industry by removing sole dependence on interprovincial routing through Manitoba, while unlocking northern economic activity—particularly mining and critical minerals—through improved power access.

References:

BECCS, Nuclear Revival, and Impact Assessment Reform: Canada West Foundation’s Roadmap for Canada’s Low‑Carbon Energy Future by Canada West Foundation

The Canada West Foundation writes that Canada is positioned to reconcile emissions reduction with energy security through innovation and regulatory reform. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is highlighted as a promising negative‑emissions technology that could leverage forestry and agricultural residues, but reports underscore supply‑chain limits, high capital and operating costs, measurement and permanence concerns, and land‑use tradeoffs that complicate scale‑up.

A renewed policy and investment push is making nuclear power—including small modular reactors—a mainstream consideration for reliable, low‑carbon baseload; authors note regulatory modernization, financing models, and workforce development as prerequisites. Improved impact assessment processes are presented as essential to de‑risk projects, fast‑track beneficial investments, and ensure meaningful local and Indigenous engagement; streamlining must balance timeliness with rigorous environmental and social review.

References:

Ottawa and Alberta agree in principle to 75% oil-and-gas methane cut by 2035

Federal and Alberta governments agreed in principle to cut oil-and-gas methane emissions 75% below 2014 levels by 2035, part of broader energy negotiations tied to a proposed Pacific-coast pipeline and following an earlier deal to delegate environmental and impact-assessment authority from Ottawa to Alberta.

The compact signals a bargain: provincial control and clearer regulatory jurisdiction in exchange for a steep sectoral emissions target intended to reduce greenhouse-gas intensity from upstream operations. Details remain thin — the agreement is “in principle” with no published enforcement, monitoring, funding or compliance mechanisms — so real-world impact will hinge on rules, measurement protocols and industry uptake. T

References:

Northern territories seek billions in federal funding to repair aging electricity grids

Northern Canada’s three territories warn their electricity grids are aging and now require billions in federal investment to both maintain basic service and modernize for future demands. Remote geography, sparse populations and harsh climates have left grid assets stretched thin, making upgrades and repairs costly and complicated; territorial governments and utilities lack the tax base to shoulder large capital projects alone.

The funding appeal frames a package-level need: keeping the lights on, reducing outage risk, and supporting key economic activities such as mining, transport and local services that rely on stable power. Modernization could encompass grid hardening, greater integration of renewables, microgrids and battery storage, and advanced remote monitoring to lower diesel dependence and improve resilience in isolated communities.

References:

US to pay TotalEnergies $1 billion to stop developing offshore wind in US

A new and unconventional escalation in the Trump administration’s opposition to offshore wind: offering financial compensation—nearly $1 billion—to energy companies to relinquish wind leases rather than develop projects. The approach follows failed legal and regulatory attempts to halt offshore wind, effectively reimbursing developers (including projects of several gigawatts in scale) to cancel planned capacity and redirect investment toward fossil fuel projects.

For the electricity industry, this signals a major policy shift with significant implications. Cancelling large offshore wind projects removes future clean generation capacity that would have served millions of homes, tightening supply outlooks and potentially increasing reliance on natural gas and other dispatchable sources. The move also introduces policy and investment uncertainty, as governments directly intervene to unwind previously awarded projects and raising risk premiums for developers and complicating long-term planning for grid expansion and resource adequacy.

References:

IPPSA's Mandate

IPPSA's mission is to convene industry, providing information, resources, and a forum for knowledge sharing, and to create opportunities for dialogue, collaboration, and education. This newsletter is meant to inform members but not advocate for specific outcomes. We always appreciate your feedback at info@ippsa.com.