IPPSA Intelligence

AESO

The finalized Restructured Energy Market (REM) ISO rules published by AESO mark a pivotal shift toward modernizing Alberta’s electricity framework, as the stakeholder engagement phase closed March 12, 2026. Pending anticipated ministerial approval via the Alberta Gazette, these rules will establish new operational protocols, dispatch criteria, and market-clearing mechanisms that aim to enhance transparency and grid reliability.

Eligible participants who contributed to the REM consultation can recover engagement costs by submitting detailed claims—including invoices and receipts—by the April 13, 2026 deadline; approved funding will be disbursed within 30 days.

Alberta’s electricity sector is gearing up for an ambitious market redesign set to launch in early 2028, driven by the AESO’s recent stakeholder newsletter. CEO Aaron Engen emphasized disciplined collaboration as the Market Participant Readiness program officially began and REM ISO rules await ministerial approval.

Market participants can now claim engagement funding by April 13 and access kickoff materials for the March 24 readiness session. Notification of new connection impacts will shift from direct letters to public congestion reports posted online, requiring stakeholders to actively monitor AESO channels.

The queue landscape is evolving: ENMAX’s SS-54 substation upgrade filing reflects Calgary’s rising demand, while developers withdrew applications for Brooks and Enterprise solar farms and the Tempest wind project.

Meanwhile, NID checklists were submitted for Collisard gas and Oyen 1 solar projects. A Cluster Assessment survey for Regional 2 seeks feedback until April 24. Dozens of consultations and workshops are under way, covering tariff design, connection obligations, reliability standards sync, constraint management, and self-certification training, with comment deadlines spanning March to May.

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Blackout Report Released

New research by Heather Exner-Pirot warns that Canada is falling behind in electricity generation at a time when demand is rising rapidly due to population growth, electrification and industrial expansion. The report from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute suggests that Canada’s historical electricity surplus could shift into a supply deficit if provinces do not accelerate grid modernization and new generation development.

For the electricity industry, the findings point to an urgent need for investment in generation, transmission and system planning, as demand growth is outpacing new supply. Without faster buildout and coordination, Canada risks increased reliability challenges, higher costs and missed economic opportunities tied to electrification and new energy-intensive industries.

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As Canada’s Electricity Demand Surges, Grid Reliability Must Lead the Renewables Transition

The Fraser Institute writes that Canada faces a rapid rise in electricity demand driven by population growth, EV adoption and industrial electrification, with federal projections showing demand could more than double by 2050.

Federal clean-electricity policy and industry forecasts — the Canadian Renewable Energy Association sees wind and solar capacity rising about 32% between 2025 and 2029 — are accelerating weather-dependent generation. Wind and solar help meet growth but are variable and can’t instantly stabilize the system; NERC warns that regions such as Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec and the Maritimes risk reserve shortfalls during extreme weather.

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Stettler County Gives Conditional OK to Atco’s 240‑kV Connection for Red Willow Solar

ATCO Electric is proposing a short, roughly 100‑metre 240‑kilovolt overhead transmission tie‑in in northeast Stettler County to connect the Red Willow Solar and Energy Storage Project, alongside about 2.5 km of new underground fibre‑optic cable. The utility plans to file an Alberta Utilities Commission (AUC) application in July 2026 and, if approved, begin construction in January 2028.

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Ottawa and Alberta at a crossroads

Federal and Alberta negotiators remain locked in follow-up talks to implement a November energy-policy MOU that balances support for conventional oil-and-gas development with stronger decarbonization expectations. Central disputes concern industrial carbon pricing under Alberta’s TIER system — moving toward a stated “minimum effective credit price” of $130/tonne while current market credits trade near $20 — and financing for Pathways, a proposed carbon‑capture alliance facing a likely >$10‑billion shortfall.

Ottawa insists it will not cherry-pick MOU commitments and ties approval for new west‑coast pipeline capacity to measurable Pathways progress. Possible fixes include tightening credit rules, reducing exemptions, and government de‑risking tools such as credit price floors or guarantees to make large carbon‑capture investments bankable.

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Four Mid‑Size Solar Farms with Battery Storage and Agrivoltaics Proposed

Four proposed mid-size solar farms in Sturgeon County, Alberta, each roughly 125–250 MW, are in early development by CanWest Solar and Starlight Canada. Sites near Villeneuve, St. Albert, Legal and Fort Saskatchewan would pair bifacial panels and single-axis trackers with battery storage and agrivoltaic layouts to allow continued agricultural use under vertical arrays.

Battery systems aim to time-shift daytime generation into evening peaks, enhancing flexibility and potentially influencing local price signals. Proximity to transmission corridors makes grid connections feasible; AltaLink would build short ties for most sites.

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Calgary companies propose 19.8‑MW natural gas plant

Two Calgary firms, Armada-Nowlitt Energy and VL Energy Ltd., propose a 19.8 MW natural-gas-fired power plant paired with on-site modular data processing containers near Clive, Alberta, sited on 4.3 acres about 1 km from the nearest residence. Developers have completed air dispersion modelling, noise assessment and other environmental studies, and are preparing regulatory filings to the Alberta Utilities Commission and under the Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act while seeking municipal approvals from Lacombe County.

The design features closed-loop cooling with no wastewater discharge, on-site stormwater controls, fuel flexibility to accept biofuels, and a plan to keep generated power on-site for high-compute tasks (AI, cryptocurrency mining, cloud services) rather than exporting to the grid.

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ATCO Blames Alberta Market Redesign for Severe Curtailment, $408M Renewable Impairment and Possible Legal Action

Alberta’s shift away from a “zero‑congestion” electricity market has sharply raised curtailment risk for southeastern wind farms, triggered large write‑downs and strained investor confidence. ATCO (via Canadian Utilities and ATCO EnPower) says the redesign, which tolerates local congestion and shifts transmission cost responsibility toward generators, caused the Forty Mile wind farm and others to lose significant output—Forty Mile lost about 25% of potential generation—and prompted a $408 million impairment on ATCO’s renewables portfolio (roughly $1 billion in Alberta value).

The dispute pits the province’s cost‑causation aim and protection of ratepayers against developers’ need for predictable, unconstrained grid access. Regulators note approvals of new renewables and storage projects but data show collapsing new‑build activity: Pembina reports a 93% decline in new solar, wind and storage projects since 2022 and 44% of approved projects were cancelled between 2023–25. AESO estimated more than $3 billion in transmission upgrades were needed for regional growth, while most curtailment is concentrated where transmission capacity is limited.

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Alberta municipalities and businesses form Fair Electricity Distribution Alliance

Communities across northern, east‑central and southern Alberta have formed the Fair Electricity Distribution Alliance (FEDA) to challenge wide disparities in monthly electricity distribution charges that leave households in affected areas paying about $118 on average versus roughly $34 elsewhere.

More than two dozen municipalities, chambers of commerce and local businesses — from Grande Prairie, Greenview and Cold Lake to Fort McMurray, Wood Buffalo and numerous towns and districts — are coordinating advocacy to pressure regulators and provincial decision‑makers for fairer allocation of distribution costs. A related resolution presented at the Alberta Municipalities conventions garnered about 75% support, signaling substantial municipal momentum.

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SaskPower and SaskEnergy to provide 300 MW and on-site gas backup for Bell AI data centre near Regina

Bell is building a large AI data centre near Regina that will require steady, high-capacity power. SaskPower will construct 300 MW of interconnection capacity for the facility in two phases: 200 MW by the end of 2026 and an additional 100 MW by the end of 2027. SaskPower says existing provincial generation can support the centre’s initial power needs this year, with additional generation scheduled to come online by 2027 to handle the increased load.

SaskEnergy will develop natural‑gas infrastructure to enable on‑site gas‑fired generation for peak operational demand and backup power, adding redundancy and resilience for an always‑on facility.

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Aurora Energy Research Acquires EDC Associates 

Aurora Energy Research has acquired Alberta specialist EDC Associates Ltd., combining global modelling and local market expertise ahead of Alberta’s Restructured Energy Market (REM) and shift to locational marginal pricing (LMP) in 2027.

The acquisition positions Aurora to expand North American presence and bolster nodal modelling, forecasting and analytics tailored to Alberta’s unique grid dynamics. EDC’s deep, on-the-ground knowledge complements Aurora’s platform and larger research team, promising higher-resolution market intelligence for investors, utilities, developers and consultants navigating the transition.

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N.B. Power Plans $88.4M OPG-Linked Management Deal

N.B. Power plans to spend $88.4 million over three years to hire Laurentis Energy Partners, linked to Ontario Power Generation, to supply experienced nuclear managers to supervise operations at the Point Lepreau Nuclear Generating Station. The contract includes an $8 million performance bonus in Year 3 contingent on measurable reliability improvements. Lepreau’s recent record is poor — 616 days offline in four years (about 154 days per year) — and the utility estimates each avoided day of downtime saves roughly $1.9 million, underpinning the business case that improved performance could offset the expense over time.

The proposal emerged during a contentious rate hearing as N.B. Power faces financial strain, failed investor/partner recruitment, and criticism from intervenors about passing costs to customers. 

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Saskatchewan budget offers one-time $1,000 repayable utility arrears relief

Saskatchewan’s budget includes a one‑time, repayable $1,000 ‘utility arrears’ payment for households on Saskatchewan Income Support, intended to relieve immediate electricity and utility debt. Anti‑poverty advocates warn the payment may be clawed back and argue it treats symptoms rather than root causes: existing social assistance rates lag rising living costs.

The measure arrives amid an $819‑million projected deficit and wider debate over electricity pricing after reports of a proposed SaskPower rate hike prompted pushback from rural municipalities.

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Enmax CEO: $400M to Modernize Calgary’s Grid 

Calgary’s rapid growth toward two million residents is driving urgent electricity-system expansion and modernization. Enmax reports record 2025 activity — more than 22,000 new housing and business connections and nearly 3,300 development permits (a 28% increase) — and is designing service for major regional projects such as Taza on Tsuut’ina Nation land. To meet rising demand while preserving reliability and affordability, Enmax committed about $400 million in 2025 to strengthen the grid: replacing downtown Substation No. 1, renewing aging underground cables, upgrading poles, adding capacity in growth corridors and deploying real‑time monitoring technologies.

Calgary’s current performance is cited as a standard to maintain during expansion. The company emphasizes proactive planning for accelerating electrification and integration of new technologies, coupled with disciplined cost management under municipal ownership to protect existing customers.

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K‑Tech and Aurora AZ Energy JV to Build 100–500 MW Wellhead‑Gas‑Powered AI, Crypto and HPC Data Centers

K‑Tech Solutions and Aurora AZ Energy formed a joint venture to develop high‑density AI, crypto‑mining and HPC data centers in Alberta powered by electricity generated at wellheads from natural gas. The initial phase targets 100 MW IT capacity at Aurora’s flagship site with possible scale‑out to 500 MW across more than 20 Aurora wellhead locations, contingent on securing additional power, land, capital and provincial energy and environmental permits. Site work is slated to begin September 2026 with first compute capacity expected Q2 2027.

Aurora will deploy on‑site gas‑to‑power systems aimed at monetizing stranded or flared gas and lowering energy costs relative to grid rates; K‑Tech will lead design, construction and operations.

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Champlain Hudson Power Express to Bring Quebec Hydropower — Could Supply Up to 20% of New York City's Power

New York City is poised to receive a major infusion of low‑carbon electricity through the Champlain Hudson Power Express, a dedicated transmission line that will carry hydroelectric power from Quebec and is projected to supply up to 20% of the city’s electricity needs. Framed as a large-scale renewable infrastructure initiative, the project demonstrates how cross‑border resource sharing and targeted transmission investments can reshape urban energy mixes, bolster decarbonization, and improve supply diversity.

By adding substantial baseload renewable generation, the line could reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions, ease reliance on fossil‑fueled plants, and influence wholesale markets and retail rates, while prompting planners to rethink grid capacity, interconnection, and resilience strategies.

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NDP modelling warns SaskPower rates could double by 2050

NDP-led modelling projects that SaskPower electricity rates could roughly double by 2050 if current provincial policies continue, linking the rise largely to Saskatchewan’s continuing reliance on coal-fired generation rather than accelerated clean-energy deployment. Published by CTV Regina, the piece frames the projection as a policy warning from the opposition NDP and emphasizes trade-offs between retiring coal, investing in renewables and managing transition costs.

The report highlights potential impacts on households and businesses, and positions long-term planning decisions—fuel prices, technology costs, carbon pricing and demand growth—as central to rate outcomes, while noting the public article lacks detailed modelling assumptions, sensitivity analysis and responses from SaskPower or the provincial government.

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Manitoba unveils sweeping bills to shore up electricity

Manitoba’s legislative package aims to balance grid reliability, consumer protection and housing affordability while shaping economic priorities. Manitoba Hydro warns new generation may be required by 2029, and the government is advancing Indigenous‑partnered wind projects. Proposed bills would allow Hydro to charge targeted, higher rates — up to double — for energy‑intensive users such as crypto‑mining operations and large data centres, and would let Hydro curtail crypto‑mining during peak demand; a moratorium on new crypto connections remains in place and officials call mining a “low‑value driver.”

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Global Hydro Electricity Market to Reach $375.3B by 2030

Hydropower is positioned for steady expansion, driven by modernization, grid integration and policy support that together keep it central to decarbonizing electricity systems. The market is forecast to reach $375.28 billion by 2030 at a 3.4% CAGR, underpinned by upgrades to aging plants, government incentives, and investments in pumped storage to provide flexibility alongside variable renewables.

Technological trends include pumped storage growth, run‑of‑river and low‑head diversion projects, hybrid systems pairing hydropower with other generation or storage, and digital monitoring and smart‑grid integration to boost efficiency and operability.

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