IPPSA Intelligence

Alberta Electric System Operator

Significant momentum is building around Alberta’s electricity market redesign as AESO prepares to launch its Restructured Energy Market (REM) in 2026. A full-day hybrid stakeholder session on March 24 will detail implementation plans and readiness requirements, following publication of consolidated survey responses to guide participants.

The upcoming daylight-savings shift on March 8 requires dispatchable asset owners to adjust Energy Trading System hour numbering and resubmit bids without HE 02 to avoid scheduling errors. Connection requests for the Tempest Wind, Brooks/Beargrass Solar and Enterprise Solar projects have been cancelled, prompting AESO to seek regulatory revocation of associated Needs Identification Documents and signaling shifts in developer strategies or economic viability.

Meanwhile, revised estimates for Q2 2026 Rider C adjustments and final Cost of Service and Benefit of Service reports for internal demand rates have been released, laying the groundwork for April rate-design workshops and future tariff changes.

Stakeholders should register for the REM kickoff by March 18, review survey findings to align operational systems, verify ETS submissions for daylight-savings, and reassess project portfolios in light of cancellations.

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Alberta Joins Interprovincial Transmission Partnership

Alberta has joined a new interprovincial-territorial partnership on electricity transmission interties, aimed at strengthening grid reliability and enabling greater power trade across Canada. The agreement, signed by Alberta and Ontario and supported by multiple provinces and territories, creates a framework for coordinated planning, information sharing and advocacy for federal support to modernize and expand transmission links between regional grids.

Governments say stronger interconnections will help manage rising electricity demand driven by population growth, industrial development and electrification while maintaining provincial control over their own systems. For the electricity industry, the partnership signals growing momentum toward greater interprovincial grid integration and potential investment in new or upgraded interties. Enhanced connections could improve reliability during peak demand events, support renewable integration and expand electricity trade across Canada.

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Market Surveillance Administrator

Alberta’s electricity landscape is poised for regulatory evolution with the Market Surveillance Administrator (MSA) planning a comprehensive enforcement process review in 2026. Aiming to bolster market integrity and compliance, the MSA will release draft investigation and enforcement frameworks, inviting input from industry participants, consumer advocates and other stakeholders. This participatory approach reflects a broader trend toward transparent, data-driven oversight that can adapt to technological advancements, such as smart grids and real-time monitoring systems.

By collecting feedback on existing procedures, the MSA seeks to identify inefficiencies and incorporate best practices, potentially integrating advanced analytics to detect market manipulation more effectively. Economically, enhanced enforcement could stabilize prices by discouraging anti-competitive behavior, fostering investor confidence in Alberta’s deregulated market. Policy implications include potential updates to confidentiality protocols and dispute-resolution mechanisms, ensuring that enforcement actions do not unduly hamper innovation or impose excessive compliance costs.

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AUC Reviews Proposed Natural‑Gas Power Plant for Beacon AI Hub

An application to build an on-site natural gas-fired power plant to serve a major data centre in southeast Rocky View County is prompting scrutiny from provincial and local authorities. Provincial policy restricting new large data centre grid connections led the developer of the Beacon AI Hub to propose an independent generating station.

If endorsed, the project will then navigate municipal planning approvals and bylaw compliance under the Municipal Government Act, aligning with any provincial conditions imposed. The proposal illustrates emerging trends in data centre self-generation technologies as grid access tightens, highlighting tensions between energy policy, infrastructure demands and land-use priorities.

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FutEra awarded up to CAD 5M by ERA to pilot PowerFlow closed‑loop geothermal

FutEra Power Corp has been awarded up to CAD 5 million by Emissions Reduction Alberta to develop a closed‑loop geothermal pilot at Swan Hills, Alberta, testing its PowerFlow Advanced Geothermal System (AGS) and drilling Alberta’s first large‑bore geothermal well. Front‑end engineering design is slated for Q1 2026 with operations targeted for late 2026 or early 2027.

PowerFlow uses closed‑loop wells and oil‑and‑gas engineering practices at the wellhead to generate electricity and heat, aiming to repurpose end‑of‑life oil and gas assets, reduce methane emissions, avoid greenfield impacts and leverage existing infrastructure and skills for local jobs. The grant supports demonstration rather than commercial deployment and builds on a 2022 Swan Hills co‑produced geothermal facility that combined an Organic Rankine Cycle with a natural‑gas turbine.

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TransAlta, CPP Investments and Brookfield sign MOU

TransAlta has signed a memorandum of understanding with CPP Investments and Brookfield to develop a large data‑centre hub at its Keephills power site in Alberta, positioning itself as the exclusive site and power provider. The framework targets an initial long‑term power purchase of about 230 MW, with potential expansion of data‑centre load up to 1 GW subject to regulatory approvals and definitive agreements.

The project would reuse existing Keephills assets—land, transmission connections, natural‑gas and water infrastructure, and on‑site generation—to support energy‑intensive computing, effectively repurposing a legacy thermal generation site into digital infrastructure.

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US Tech Giants to Fund Data-Centre Power and Grid Upgrades to Protect Ratepayers

Major U.S. technology companies have agreed to a White House-backed "Ratepayer Protection Pledge" to shoulder the costs of powering data centers, committing to build or procure dedicated generation, pay for transmission and grid upgrades, and enter special utility-rate agreements to prevent cost-shifting to households.

The pledge, signed by cloud and AI leaders and promoted as a way to ease local opposition to data-center projects, responds to rising electricity demand driven by AI computing and the political salience of energy affordability ahead of midterm elections. 

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Final Alberta Nuclear Survey 

The Alberta Nuclear Panel is conducting a compressed, government-led public consultation to decide whether nuclear power should be included in its future electricity mix. A final online Nuclear Energy Survey runs March 3–24, feeding the Nuclear Energy Engagement and Advisory Panel’s report to the Minister of Affordability and Utilities by March 31.

The panel — including industry, academic and Indigenous representatives — has gathered input since 2025 via an earlier survey (about 5,000 respondents), forty formal submissions, webinars, Indigenous sessions and community meetings in Peace River, Fort McMurray, Bonnyville, Calgary and Edmonton. 

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BC’s Power Puzzle

British Columbia faces a growing mismatch between electrification ambitions and its ability to supply low‑carbon power, as imports in 2025 exceeded the full‑year output expected from Site C despite the dam coming online mid‑year. Multi‑year low snowpacks have reduced hydro output, forcing BC Hydro to buy fossil‑fuel‑intensive U.S. power while exporting natural gas—an ironic trade and emissions exposure that currently isn't fully counted in provincial GHG tallies.

CleanBC restrictions on new gas generation limit flexible local supply even as electrification and a 7,291 MW connection queue (mostly industrial) create large unmet demand. The proposed North Coast Transmission Line aims to unlock northern LNG, mines and ports, promising jobs and GDP gains, but cost estimates vary widely, federal funding remains unresolved, and ratepayers could shoulder bills.

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Canadian Utilities Q4 Results

Canadian Utilities has outlined a bold transition toward regulated network growth with a record $12 billion five‑year capital plan that lifts regulated rate base CAGR to 6.9%, driven by contracted infrastructure like the Yellowhead pipeline and network reinforcement projects. Yellowhead is 100% contracted, AUC application filed, cost estimated at $2.9 billion (±20%) and near‑term equity funded via hybrids, preferred shares and cash. Atlas CCS targets late‑2028 commercial operations but remains long‑dated.

Operating cash flow rose $144 million in 2025, supporting near‑term funding and limiting the need for common equity in the immediate tranche, though later years may require capital recycling or equity. Renewables faces meaningful headwinds: severe curtailment and congestion—one wind asset saw ~40% curtailment—caused material earnings shortfalls, impairment risk and volatility for EnPower.

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TransAlta 2025 Results

TransAlta delivered a robust 2025 with adjusted EBITDA around CAD 1.1 billion and free cash flow of CAD 450 million, while guiding lower for 2026 as Centralia ceased operations and Alberta spot prices eased to about CAD 44/MWh. Strategic moves include a Keephills data‑center MOU with CPP Investments and Brookfield for an initial ~230 MW PPA (expandable to ~1 GW) that could provide long‑term contracted demand with minimal phase‑one capital; a 700 MW coal‑to‑gas tolling deal with Puget Sound Energy that targets FID in early 2027 and COD in late 2028 at ~USD/CAD 600 million capex and full contracting through 2044; and the CAD 95 million Far North Power acquisition adding 310 MW and ~CAD 30 million annual Adjusted EBITDA.

Operationally wind and solar outperformed while hydro and gas were pressured by lower spot/ancillary prices and carbon costs; TransAlta realized appreciably higher prices via hedges (~8,600 GWh at ~CAD 70/MWh in 2025, ~8,500 GWh at ~CAD 65/MWh for 2026). Governance and capital options include a Brookfield hydro conversion option, an 8% dividend increase, leadership transition, and an Investor Day to firm long‑term guidance.

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Capital Power 2025 Results

Capital Power’s 2025 results reflect accelerated U.S. expansion, growing contracted cash flows and advancing low‑carbon projects. The company closed a ~US$2.2B (~$3.0B CAD) acquisition of Hummel and Rolling Hills, adding ~2.2 GW of PJM gas capacity, and pursued a US growth partnership with Apollo that could deploy up to US$3B, bolstering merchant asset scale. Long‑term contract wins and extensions — including a 2040 MCV contract, a 10+ year 250 MW ESA MOU with an Alberta data‑centre developer, and an Arlington Valley tolling extension to 2038 with a summer capacity uprate — increase revenue visibility.

Renewables and storage progress included ~604 MW of contracted projects reaching commercial operation, 170 MW of battery storage online in Ontario, Halkirk 2 wind operational, and U.S. solar construction underway. Financially, 2025 AFFO of $1,066M and Adjusted EBITDA of $1,580M contrasted with a Q4 net loss; capital markets activity raised equity ($667M) and issued ~$2.3B in notes while dividends rose 6%. Management changes, detailed non‑GAAP disclosures and comprehensive risk disclosures accompanied forward‑looking assumptions.

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IPPSA's Mandate

IPPSA's mission is to convene industry, providing information, resources, and a forum for knowledge sharing, and to create opportunities for dialogue, collaboration, and education. This newsletter is meant to inform members but not advocate for specific outcomes. We always appreciate your feedback at info@ippsa.com.