IPPSA Intelligence

Alberta Electric System Operator

Alberta’s independent system operator has issued a series of updates that touch on market operations, transmission planning and reliability standards. Market participants must adjust their trading submissions on March 8, 2026 to accommodate the loss of hour ending 02 during daylight savings in the AESO Energy Trading System.

On the planning front, the AESO filed a Needs Identification Document for the 160 MW Lone Butte Solar project (P2552) and approved the Meadowlark Substation Upgrade (P2972) via its Abbreviated Needs Approval Process.

The Large-Load Integration Phase 2A working group has advanced discussions on Bring Your Own Generation models, making its materials and summaries available on the AESO Engage platform. Stakeholders are also reminded to register by February 25 for the in-person Reliability Standards Discussion Group update on March 5, with supporting documents posted the following day.

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PACE Canada Withdraws Brooks Solar Farm Application

Rapid regulatory shifts in Alberta’s electricity market are prompting renewable energy developers to pause or recalibrate projects until new market rules and locational pricing structures are defined.

The proposed photovoltaic array, planned on 175 acres with agrivoltaic integration and public amenities, was previously granted multiple abeyances and remains active at the AESO level pending clear guidance on the enhanced pricing model.

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AESO Allotments 

Alberta’s electricity grid is experiencing unprecedented pressure from a surge in AI data-centre development, forcing the Alberta Electric System Operator to cap Phase 1 interconnection capacity at 1,200 MW and introduce a temporary allotment and transfer system. With 42 large-load projects requesting 21.1 GW—almost twice the province’s peak demand—AESO required support letters, power-flow studies, and financial security but waived qualification fees. Developers could trade their allotted capacity during a defined window in mid-2025, sparking a “gold rush” for transmission slots.

Kalina Distributed Power secured 180 MW and sold it for $18 million to Greenlight Electricity Centre, boosting its cash position and highlighting interconnection rights as a valuable commodity. Even if AI build-out slows, allotted capacity will retain market value for other large users. The unfolding dynamic underscores the need for strategic investments in transmission and generation to meet rapid load growth, while regulators may need to refine allocation procedures, accelerate interconnection timelines, and coordinate with local planning.

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U.S. Grid Strain and Canada's Strategic Role with Exports

Rapid expansion of AI data centres is creating localized grid stress, higher consumer rates and political pushback, exemplified by Ohio where ~200 facilities have raised residential bills about 15% and spurred opposition to Amazon plans for 200+ natural‑gas fuel cells and 150+ diesel backups. States have lured centres with roughly US$2.5 billion in incentives over a decade and aggressive local abatements, provoking debate over fairness, jobs and environmental health.

Short‑term fixes — fuel‑cell farms, diesel generators — face social and regulatory resistance, while the U.S. may lack near‑term generation and transmission capacity for explosive AI demand. That gap spotlights Canada’s strategic position: major hydro and nuclear exporter and CANDU expertise using unenriched uranium. Provinces also expect rising domestic demand (BC ~15% by 2030; Ontario up to 75% in coming decades; Quebec could double by 2050), so export strategies must balance local needs.

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Alberta 2026 Water Supply Outlook: Early Snowpack Boosts Flows, Advisories Remain

Alberta’s February 2026 water-supply outlook shows substantially improved early-season conditions driven by stronger precipitation and above-normal mountain snowpack at many monitoring sites. Monthly snow surveys (Feb 1–June 1) and February–August basin forecasts indicate the most favourable early-season picture since 2022.

Major southern reservoirs are generally healthy—Oldman and South Saskatchewan at normal storage and Bow above normal—with basin-wide snow-water equivalent notably higher than February 2025. Nevertheless 40 water management areas remain under conditional water shortage advisories and several basins are at drought Stages 1–3 under Alberta’s Stage 0–5 scale, so risks persist.

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Alberta Invests $28M in Six Clean‑Tech Projects

Alberta is investing $28 million through ERA’s Industrial Transformation Challenge (funded by TIER) to back six clean-technology pilots that boost energy output while reducing environmental impacts. Projects include pipeline-security pilots in Suffield; a first-of-its-kind system in Coaldale converting cattle waste to renewable natural gas; energy-recovery tech for existing wells in Calgary; emissions-reduction measures for natural-gas operations in Yellowhead County; advanced in‑situ remediation of hydrocarbons and salts in Leduc; and methane-reduction tech for cattle in Edmonton.

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Is Alberta's Power Grid Ready for the Surge?

Federal EV rebates driving higher electric-vehicle adoption and Alberta’s push to attract AI data centres together create a distinct electricity-demand challenge: more distributed, time-variable residential charging alongside large, continuous commercial loads. Charging behaviour will shape system stress, while concentrated data‑centre buildouts can create local transmission bottlenecks and require generation or grid upgrades.

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How Alberta's Energy Rules Lower Costs for Crypto Miners

Alberta’s regulatory and market design has materially lowered energy costs for cryptocurrency miners by enabling “behind‑the‑fence” use of stranded or flared natural gas, offering access to competitive, negotiated electricity tariffs in a deregulated market, and freezing the province’s TIER carbon price at C$95/tonne. Miners colocate near well sites and containerized data centers to monetize gas that would otherwise be wasted, improving project economics after the 2024 Bitcoin halving reduced revenue.

Regulators are enforcing licensing, fining noncompliant operators and requiring miners to fund any grid-connection upgrades so residential customers aren’t cross-subsidizing industrial loads. The province’s approach contrasts with British Columbia’s 2025 ban on new mining projects, illustrating how small policy choices shape industrial location and energy use..

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Manitoba’s Water at Risk: ‘Creeping Snow Drought’ Threatens Farms, Cities and Hydro

Researchers warn of a “creeping snow drought” across Western Canada: from 2000–2019 snow volume and moisture declined, affecting 14 of 25 major drainage basins and placing the Assiniboine–Red River basin among the most vulnerable. Southern Manitoba—where snow supplies about half of annual water—faces reduced streamflow, lower soil moisture, and earlier peaks that threaten crop yields, livestock feed, municipal drinking supplies and regional economies such as Brandon. Manitoba Hydro’s peak generation has already been constrained; sustained low flows could undermine future hydro output and financial plans.

Existing interprovincial water-sharing arrangements risk strain if headwaters shift timing or volume, prompting calls for binding commitments from Saskatchewan. Manitoba’s forthcoming climate plan notably omits snowmelt and water‑supply risks, leaving gaps in preparedness.

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Jim Robb - Reliability in the “Age of Electricity

NERC CEO Jim Robb delivered remarks at the IEA’s High-Level Ministerial Dialogue. He underscored that grid reliability is ultimately governed by physics, not politics, and warned that North America faces a “hyper-complex” risk environment. Rapid deployment of inverter-based resources, accelerating large-load growth, and the retirement of traditional “spinning mass” generation are tightening the system and increasing sensitivity to extreme weather.

With generation not keeping pace with hundreds of gigawatts of projected load growth, roughly half of North America is now assessed to be at elevated risk of energy shortfalls during seasonal extremes—compounded by rising cyber and physical security threats. The central message: in an era of rapid electrification and decarbonization, reliability must remain grounded in operational reality and scalable solutions capable of supporting hundreds of gigawatts of growth.

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East-West Grid Can Advance Without a Mega-Project

Francis Bradley argues that Canada doesn’t need a single, formal “nation-building” project to build an east-west electricity grid. While Ottawa has signaled ambitions to expand interprovincial transmission, much of the infrastructure already exists. The bigger opportunity lies in upgrading and better coordinating existing interties, which historically were designed north-south, to improve east-west power flows and regional sharing.

For Canada’s electricity industry, the implication is that grid integration may depend less on one large political project and more on incremental transmission upgrades, regulatory alignment, and improved planning coordination. Strengthening east-west connections could enhance reliability, optimize renewable integration, and reduce regional cost volatility—if longstanding regulatory and market barriers are addressed.

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