IPPSA Intelligence

Alberta Electric System Operator

Alberta’s electricity operator has introduced a colour-coded grid conditions dashboard with historical data and an opt-in alert service to boost transparency and reduce unnecessary public responses.

Stakeholders face key deadlines: written feedback on reliability standards by Dec. 19; comments on Fast Frequency Response design due Jan. 19; input on cost-of-service studies by Jan. 21; and a pre-engagement REM survey by Jan. 26.

The 2026 energy market trading charge is set at 60.6 cents/MWh. Revised Restructured Energy Market rules will be released in early 2026 after government approvals, accompanied by an independent ECCO International report; eligible participants will have 30 days post-publication to submit funding documentation.

The ISO tariff redesign schedule outlines workstreams on embedded and marginal cost analyses and a rebranded Tariff Connection Obligations group.

Annual market statistics are updated through November 2025. AESO paused newsletter issues on Dec. 24 and 31, resuming Jan. 7, and urges engagement via its AESO Engage platform.

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Ottawa–Alberta Accord Ignite Push for Gas Plants to Power Alberta

Alberta’s recent regulatory shift, suspension of the federal Clean Electricity Regulations tied to an Ottawa–Alberta memorandum, has reopened the path for new gas-fired power development to supply a projected data-centre boom, part of the province’s bid to attract $100 billion of investment in five years. The deal trades CER suspension for a higher provincial industrial carbon price (effectively $130/tonne), aiming to balance investment incentives with emissions pricing. Developers report renewed appetite: more than 30 proposed data centres—almost 20 GW of potential demand.

AESO has identified roughly 1.2 GW of immediate grid capacity for data centres, and industry figures cite $6–18+ billion of potential generation investment in discussions. Key barriers remain: municipal approvals, water access, customer commitments, permitting speed and interjurisdictional competition. Environment and policy trade-offs are central: suspending CER removes a major regulatory disincentive to new gas plants but shifts mitigation to carbon pricing.

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Federal $3M Scale AI Project Backs Calgary’s Arcus Power to Optimize Batteries, Lower Electricity Bills and Improve Grid Dispatch by LiveWire Calgary

Federal backing is funding a $3 million applied-AI project led by Calgary startup Arcus Power to optimize battery charging/discharging and grid dispatch using real‑time market signals, grid requirements and asset‑health data. Supported by Scale Ai, the effort aims to boost battery operator revenue, reduce equipment wear and improve system performance while smoothing dispatch during variable supply conditions.

Officials and industry experts argue that smarter storage control can lower components of electricity bills — particularly demand and fixed charges tied to infrastructure needs — by making better use of existing generation and avoiding costly transmission build‑outs.

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Partners Give Green Light to Four New Data Centres in Alberta

European and Alberta partners have approved a major CA$1.26 billion investment to develop four new AI-optimized data centres in Alberta, with Phase 1 targeting about 240 MW of combined capacity and initial operations beginning in 2026. The agreement, involving Technologies New Energy (TNE) and Data District Inc. (a division of Swiss asset manager Alcral AG), will see facilities built in locations such as Olds and Bonnyville, leveraging Alberta’s abundant and competitive energy infrastructure and strong connectivity to support growth in digital infrastructure and AI compute workloads.

Expertise from TNE will help with scalable design, modular power solutions (including gas generation, batteries, and energy storage), and building the skilled workforce needed to construct and operate the data centres, reflecting Alberta’s push to attract global investment and strengthen its role as a hub for energy-intensive technology projects.

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Neudorf’s Holiday Message: CER Suspended, $18B Gas Investment, Nuclear by 2050

Minster Neudorf’s seasonal message to his constituents blends local holiday reflections with provincial energy-policy announcements.

The province has signed an Alberta–Canada Energy Agreement (MOU) intended to bolster long‑term economic security and position Canada as an energy leader. Neudorf highlights the suspension of the federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), citing AESO analysis that the CER would have driven a roughly 35% rise in electricity prices and materially reduced grid reliability. The suspension is portrayed as unlocking about $18 billion of new natural‑gas investment to shore up affordability and firm capacity.

He also signals collaboration with Ottawa on a federal‑provincial nuclear generation strategy targeting service to Alberta and inter‑connected markets by 2050, and invites public engagement through provincial consultations. The combined narrative ties local goodwill to broader policy objectives: affordability, reliability, investment certainty and a phased low‑carbon roadmap.

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Alberta's Electricity Exports to Montana Could Shape Canada–U.S. Trade Talks

Alberta’s growing electricity exports to Montana are emerging as a trade and policy flashpoint that brings electricity-market design, cross‑border transmission and emissions concerns into Canada–U.S. negotiations. What began as commercial flows now intersects federal trade talks, with U.S. complaints expected to be taken seriously and potentially shaping negotiation dynamics. 

Outcomes could alter export rules, market access, bilateral coordination on transmission planning and emissions accounting, and influence related Alberta–Ottawa energy settlements and pipeline politics. Economically, contested exports could affect revenues, investment incentives and cross‑border commerce; politically, they may become leverage in broader trade bargaining.

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DOE Orders Centralia Unit 2 to Remain Available for 90 Days

US Federal authorities have issued a 90-day order requiring Centralia Unit 2 in Washington State to remain available through March 16, 2026, prompting TransAlta to say it will evaluate and coordinate with state and federal partners. The directive, disclosed in a brief corporate press release, signals short-term reliability concerns or contingency planning in the regional electricity system and represents a direct instance of federal intervention in generation availability.

The release provides no operational detail—whether the unit will operate continuously, its prior status, fuel use, emissions profile, costs, or market impacts—and focuses instead on TransAlta’s commitment to cooperate and its broader corporate and emissions-reduction credentials. The case highlights tensions between near-term reliability imperatives and longer-term decarbonization goals, illustrating how governments may temporarily prioritize capacity availability amid grid stress or planning shortfalls.

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StatsCan Q3 2025 Canada Industrial Capacity Utilization: Hydropower Weakness

Canada's industrial capacity utilization rose to 78.5% in Q3 2025, up 0.9 percentage points from a revised 77.6% in Q2. Sector results were mixed: construction rebounded 1.3 points to 80.2% after eight straight declines, driven by higher engineering construction; mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction increased 0.7 points to 77.1% as extraction activity recovered; electric power generation, transmission and distribution fell 1.7 points to 78.8% amid reduced hydroelectric output linked to dry conditions.

Statistics Canada notes the utilization rate equals actual output over estimated potential output and covers manufacturing plus forestry, mining, electric power and construction; non‑manufacturing patterns derive from real GDP-to-capital ratios and manufacturing series are seasonally adjusted with X‑12‑ARIMA. Short-term stress on hydro‑dependent electricity supplies from dry weather, and the need for stakeholders to account for methodological revisions. Next release: March 13, 2026.

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Manitoba Hydro's 10-Year Integrated Resource Plan

Manitoba Hydro’s 10-year Integrated Resource Plan maps a mixed-supply approach to head off projected electricity shortfalls by decade’s end, combining up to 600 MW of Indigenous majority‑owned wind with roughly 750 MW of combustion turbines to add dispatchable capacity. 

Framing the plan as part of Manitoba’s pathway to net‑zero by 2050 ties near‑term investments to longer‑term climate goals and signals opportunities for economic reconciliation through Indigenous ownership and local benefits. Technically, pairing intermittent renewables with quick-start thermal units addresses variability and reliability concerns, but timelines, permitting and community agreements will influence costs and deployment speed.

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Charting B.C.’s Energy Future: LNG Growth, Indigenous Partnerships, and Electricity Strategy

British Columbia is positioned to leverage abundant natural gas and growing LNG opportunities while balancing affordability, reliability and ecological stewardship. Stakeholders at the Canada West Foundation roundtable stressed that expanding LNG and gas development requires stable policy and regulation.

Panelists argued B.C. can deepen electricity market participation in the United States, but must adopt an integrated strategy that pairs hydro capacity with gas‑fired backup to manage seasonal variability and secure dependable, cost‑competitive power. Public support for development exists, yet ecological concerns and consent processes shape project timelines and social license. Economic implications include job creation, export revenue and supply‑chain growth, while risks involve regulatory uncertainty, community opposition and environmental tradeoffs.

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PJM Auction Results

PJM Interconnection announced the results of its 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction, securing 134,479 MW of unforced capacity (generation and demand response) across its 13-state grid to help meet forecast peak electricity needs for more than 67 million people, with the clearing price hitting the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission-approved cap of $333.44 per MW-day — slightly higher than the prior year — resulting in roughly $16.4 billion in total capacity cleared.

While additional Fixed Resource Requirement (FRR) commitments bring total capacity to about 145,777 MW, the procured amount still falls short of PJM’s reliability target by about 6,623 MW, equating to a reserve margin below the one-in-10-years standard; PJM expects mitigating factors like lowered peak demand forecasts, possible retirements staying online, and winter-only resources to help close that gap. PJM also noted that data center load growth significantly drove forecast increases, underscoring the need for coordinated efforts among stakeholders, regulators, and industry to boost supply and maintain reliability, with an incremental auction planned for early 2027.

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IPPSA's Mandate

IPPSA's mission is to convene industry, providing information, resources, and a forum for knowledge sharing, and to create opportunities for dialogue, collaboration, and education. This newsletter is meant to inform members but not advocate for specific outcomes. We always appreciate your feedback at info@ippsa.com.