IPPSA Intelligence

AESO

Several engagement files advanced this month, including the 2026 Budget Development Process, where updated materials and FAQs have been posted, with a Board Decision forthcoming.

New system access applications were filed for the Lamoureux Ruby Solar Battery Project near Fort Saskatchewan and the Hutchison Battery Energy Storage Facility in the Medicine Hat region. The AESO also noted that its Optimal Transmission Planning (OTP) Framework Paper has shifted to a January 2026 release.

Amended Information Document #2012-006R was posted in November, providing updated guidance on how the AESO manages supply shortfall events and conducts adequacy assessments under related rules and reliability standards.

Multiple consultation processes are now active: proposed amendments to Sections 503.6 and 503.18 with feedback due Dec. 17; the Reliability Standards Sync Up Project, seeking comments on medium-complexity ARS by Dec. 19; and an extended deadline to Dec. 19 for submissions on Opportunity Cost for Market Power Mitigation under REM rule development. Stakeholders are also invited to provide comments by Jan. 21, 2026 on interim Internal Demand Rate study reports presented earlier in December.

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Capital Power 2025 Investor Day

At its 2025 Investor Day in Toronto, Capital Power outlined a strategic growth blueprint through 2030 centered on expanding its role as a major North American power producer, particularly in natural gas-fired generation to meet rising demand for reliable electricity. The presentation underscores disciplined operations, a long-term financial model targeting 8–10% AFFO per-share growth and 13–15% total shareholder return, and plans to boost owned U.S. capacity by ~3.5 GW by 2030. The company positions natural gas as a near-term source of firm capacity essential to address rising electricity demand driven by AI infrastructure and grid reliability needs.

Strategic initiatives highlighted include a US$3 billion investment partnership with Apollo-managed funds to acquire U.S. merchant natural gas assets and a binding memorandum of understanding for a 250 MW long-term electricity supply agreement with an investment-grade data centre developer in Alberta, reflecting Capital Power’s effort to anchor power supply for growing tech demand. The 2026 financial guidance reinforces commitment to disciplined capital allocation and growing earnings from both existing and newly acquired assets

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Alberta Sets New Peak Electricity Demand Record

Energy expert Jason Doering, P.Eng. highlighted that Alberta set a new all-time peak electricity demand record of 12,785 MW on December 11, 2025, exceeding the 2024 record by 401 MW (about 3.2% growth). This increase—roughly equivalent to the output of an additional combined-cycle gas plant—illustrates accelerating load growth in the province.

Doering noted that while supply adequacy remains sufficient today, sustained demand increases could strain capacity without timely investment in dispatchable generation and stronger investor confidence as market reforms roll out. He further pointed out the generation mix dynamics during the peak: wind contributed meaningfully at times, but on the following morning 95% of supply came from gas-fired generation, underscoring Alberta’s current reliance on natural gas for grid reliability. Until economically viable grid-scale storage, renewables with firming, and/or new dispatchable technologies like nuclear are deployed, Alberta’s grid will continue to depend heavily on gas to meet peak needs.

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NERC 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment evaluates the bulk power system (BPS) reliability across North America for the upcoming winter season (December 2025–February 2026). The assessment highlights growing challenges driven by rising electricity demand—spurred by factors like data center growth and electrification of heating and transport—and an evolving generation mix marked by retirements of traditional thermal plants and an increased share of variable resources.

While all regions are projected to have adequate capacity under normal winter peak conditions, several areas, including parts of the U.S. Southeast, New England, Texas, the West, and the Canadian Maritimes, are at elevated risk of supply shortfalls under extreme weather events or prolonged cold snaps due to constrained natural-gas infrastructure and limited firm fuel supplies. NERC’s report underscores the importance of preparedness and resource adequacy planning to mitigate potential reliability issues this winter.

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Alberta: Power to Compute

RBC’s Disruptors: The Canada Project highlights how Alberta is positioning itself at the intersection of the electricity and AI revolutions by tapping legacy power infrastructure to support massive new computing loads. Under a “bring your own power (BYOP)” framework, sites like Keephills and Sundance are being repurposed, with existing transmission, water access, and industrial land to attract hyperscale data centres and AI compute facilities, potentially unlocking thousands of megawatts of new demand.

The strategy is supported by a recent Canada–Alberta energy memorandum of understanding, signaling broader cooperation to enable rapid deployment of power and compute capacity. The initiative addresses what leaders describe as an “energy quadlema”—balancing reliability, affordability, sustainability, and velocity in meeting the surging electricity needs driven by AI, and could help Canada secure a strategic advantage in the global data-driven economy.

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Alberta’s Nuclear Power Panel Engagement

The Alberta government’s Nuclear Energy Engagement and Advisory Panel has begun a series of public engagement sessions to gather input on the potential role of nuclear power in the province’s energy future. The sessions aim to inform Albertans about nuclear energy, including safety and waste management topics, and to collect feedback from residents, municipalities and industry stakeholders.

These early discussions are part of a broader provincial initiative to assess how nuclear generation could help meet growing electricity demand and contribute to long-term grid reliability and lower emissions. The panel will use public input to develop a final report with recommendations for Alberta’s government, expected by March 31, 2026 to help shape a nuclear energy roadmap.

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Hydro-Québec, ISO-NE & NYISO Ties

The GridStatus analysis examines the evolving role of Hydro-Québec (HQ) as a major electricity supplier to the Northeastern U.S., focusing on transmission ties with the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) and ISO New England (ISO-NE). Québec’s hydroelectric power has long supported Northeast climate goals and reliability by displacing fossil generation, and nearly 2.5 GW of new interties are expected to come online soon under projects like New England Clean Energy Connect and Champlain Hudson Power Express.

However, despite expanded physical capacity, actual power flows from HQ into New England and New York have declined in recent years, challenging assumptions that Québec exports can easily meet growing regional demand. Factors behind this trend include shifts in regional load patterns, water availability impacts on hydro reservoirs, and dynamic seasonal demand that reduces surplus export capability even as Northeast peak load pressures rise.

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Germany Shifts Energy Strategy Toward Nuclear Fusion

Germany is making a notable pivot in its energy policy by embracing nuclear fusion research as a central part of its long-term clean energy strategy, marking a departure from its post-Fukushima rejection of conventional nuclear fission power. The move reflects growing confidence in fusion technology—especially as recent breakthroughs at institutions like the U.S. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory demonstrate the scientific possibility of achieving net energy gain from fusion reactions.

Germany is leveraging partnerships between private fusion firms (such as Focused Energy) and established utilities like RWE to accelerate R&D and position itself at the forefront of the global fusion race. While commercial fusion power remains decades or more away, policymakers see it as a safer, low-waste alternative to fission that could ultimately deliver abundant, clean electricity and improve energy security.

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