IPPSA Intelligence

AESO

Participants in Alberta’s electricity market face a flurry of near-term deadlines and consultations as the Alberta Electric System Operator advances connection, tariff, Restructured Energy Market and reliability initiatives.

By early December, stakeholders must submit statutory declarations for incumbency treatment or GUOC refunds, provide feedback on Transmission Reinforcement Payment and Supply System Access Service methodologies, and register for cost-of-service and benefit-of-service sessions under the Internal Demand Rates workstream. Proposed amendments to frequency and speed governing and operation and maintenance provisions (Sections 503.6 and 503.18) require written comments by mid-December.

REM ISO rule development continues with methodological content, opportunity cost for market power mitigation and dispatch variance consultations closing shortly. Working group rosters for large load integration have been finalized, while updates to the Collisard Gas Generation Project connection reflect ownership changes.

Reliability Standards Discussion Group is seeking input on Compliance Oversight Plan improvements. Materials and stakeholder session presentations are posted on AESO Engage. Timely engagement is vital: missed deadlines could limit entitlements or influence final rule language, impact project costs and operational obligations.

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Bill 8

Alberta's government is enacting Bill 8 to manage surging electricity demand from AI data centres by prioritizing projects that secure power via direct offtake agreements or on-site generation, avoiding undue strain on the public grid. With an ambition to attract $100 billion in data-centre investment over five years, dozens of proposals await connection approval but risk reliability issues and increased consumer costs without additional infrastructure. Bill 8 speeds reviews for self-supplying operators while maintaining environmental, regulatory and transmission permitting requirements. It also advances earlier market restructuring finalized in August, refines transmission policy to optimize existing lines, and allows cost recovery for hydrogen–natural-gas pilot blending.

Officials emphasize that Alberta’s current generation capacity meets local demand in the near term but cannot accommodate all queued requests without jeopardizing reliability, drawing on lessons from U.S. jurisdictions to avoid premature pitfalls. By granting preferential treatment to self-powered data centres, the province aims to limit public investment, protect ratepayers and guide investors toward projects with minimized grid impact. The integrated reforms balance rapid AI infrastructure growth with consumer protection, signalling a strategic approach to managing electricity system risks.

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New Report Maps Legal, Regulatory and Project Pathways for Nuclear Development

Canada is entering a new nuclear era, with a practical report—Delivering the Future of Nuclear in Western Canada—mapping legal, regulatory, policy and project-delivery issues to support nuclear deployment across Alberta and Saskatchewan. Framed as a tool for lawyers, policymakers, industry and citizens, the report synthesizes conference insights to address regulatory clarity, international liability regimes, uranium supply-chain roles, transportation safety and mine-to-reactor logistics.

Practical chapters on financing, project delivery models and dispute avoidance aim to de‑risk investment and inform financiers, while Indigenous participation, rights and consultation are foregrounded to ensure social license and equitable benefit-sharing. Implications include pressure on provincial and federal frameworks to adapt licensing, liability and oversight; opportunities for Canadian uranium exporters and service providers; and coordination needs between regulators, communities and investors.

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Maxim Power Announces ~$6.5M Partial Settlement for 2022 Milner 2 Plant Fire

Maxim Power Corp. secured a partial insurance settlement of roughly $6.5 million (net of fees) tied to a non‑injury fire that damaged the air inlet filter house at its Milner 2 combined‑cycle gas plant on Sept. 30, 2022, with proceeds expected in Q4 2025. The payment resolves Maxim’s claim against one of multiple third parties and represents the maximum net available under that party’s policy; the company continues to pursue claims against other defendants whose combined coverage it says is broadly similar but uncertain in amount and timing.

Milner 2, a 300 MW H.R. Milner unit in Alberta that began commercial operations in Q4 2023, remains Maxim’s core asset. The corporate focus stays on Alberta development, including a currently permitted gas‑fired project and a wind generation project in permitting. Financially, the settlement delivers a one‑time cash inflow that partially offsets incident losses while litigation and insurance outcomes will determine additional recoveries and net position.

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OBPS removal hits SaskPower as Saskatchewan swings to $427M deficit in 2025-26

Saskatchewan moved from a planned $12-million surplus to a projected $427-million deficit in its 2025–26 mid‑year fiscal update, driven by $521 million in higher expenses and a $292 million reduction in SaskPower’s net income after the province scrapped its Output‑Based Performance Standards (OBPS) program. The OBPS removal eliminated fee rebates to large industrial emitters, directly cutting utility revenue and illustrating how emissions‑regulation design can materially affect Crown utility finances and ratepayer or capital‑planning choices.

Despite fiscal strain, Saskatchewan still forecasts 1.7% real GDP growth for 2025, with stronger housing starts and wholesale trade, while gross debt is now expected to reach $39.3 billion, $962 million above budget.

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First Nations offered up to 50% equity as Bowmanville substation preps for Darlington SMRs

Ontario has moved to expand its high-voltage transmission network by directing the Ontario Energy Board to amend Hydro One’s licence so Hydro One can develop and construct a new double‑circuit 500 kV transmission line from the Bowmanville Switching Station into the Greater Toronto Area.

Hydro One will partner with nearby First Nations, offering up to a 50% equity stake in the transmission component, and AtkinsRéalis has been retained as owner’s engineer for Bowmanville substation expansion. That substation expansion is sited to enable grid connection for four planned small modular reactors at the Darlington New Nuclear Project.

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BC Hydro’s 2025 IRP May Underestimate Demand from Large‑Scale Electrification

BC Hydro’s 2025 Integrated Resource Plan balances affordability and reliability but relies on conservative load forecasts that risk understating future electricity needs. The IRP models low, reference and high demand scenarios and treats the reference case as most likely, projecting roughly 13% more capacity by 2030 and another ~8.5% by 2035. It does not fully incorporate potential large industrial electrification—two proposed LNG facilities, the North Coast Transmission Line and mine expansions—which, if electrified, could add demand comparable to about two Site C equivalents.

Planned measures (calls for power, renewals of purchase agreements, community and customer solar, efficiency programs and targeted acquisitions) create only modest modeled surpluses (≈3% in 2030, ≈5% in 2035). Given historical underestimation of global electricity growth and the province’s statutory climate targets, the IRP’s conservative stance conflicts with its admission that overbuilding can be cheaper and less risky than underbuilding.

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Alberta–Ottawa MOU could exempt province from Clean Electricity Regulations, reshaping pipelines, carbon capture and data‑centre power

The federal–provincial memorandum of understanding centers on energy terms that could reshape Alberta’s electricity investment by addressing pipeline approval, a Pathways Alliance carbon-capture plan and potential carve-outs from the federal Clean Electricity Regulations (CER).

Alberta, heavily gas-dependent for generation, argues CER deters new natural-gas investment, threatens reliability and affordability and could force plant closures by 2035; the Alberta Electric System Operator warns of up to $30 billion in added costs and a possible 35% wholesale-price increase between 2035–2050 under CER. The MOU would let Alberta continue using its TIER emissions framework instead of CER, while linking federal pipeline support to oilsands decarbonization. A federal carve‑out could quicken gas investment and data‑centre projects but would complicate national emissions consistency and leave major technical, political and financial challenges unresolved.

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Ontario Approves $26.8‑Billion Refurbishment of Pickering Nuclear Reactors

Ontario has approved a $26.8-billion refurbishment of Pickering B—four ageing CANDU reactors—to extend plant life by about 38 years, add roughly 100 MW net to bring combined output to ~2,200 MW, and create an estimated 30,000 construction and 3,700 permanent jobs.

Work is slated to begin in early 2027 with units returning through the mid-2030s, and requires Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission sign-off. Costs far exceed the Darlington refurbishment due to Pickering’s greater age, extensive replacements, inflation and technical complexity; Siemens Energy has been contracted for turbine upgrades.

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Pipeline Online

At 11:15 p.m. MST on November 26, Alberta’s wind output plunged to just 7 MW—0.12% of its 5,684 MW capacity—forcing the system operator to lean on natural gas for 97% of in-province generation. Minute-by-minute AESO data shows natural gas cogeneration, combined-cycle, simple-cycle, and converted coal plants picked up the slack, keeping pool prices at a moderate $63.20/MWh.

Small-scale imports from Saskatchewan and limited exports to British Columbia played minor roles. Despite the near-zero wind event, no reliability issues or extreme price spikes emerged. In contrast, past wind shortfalls have triggered price caps near $1,000/MWh, demonstrating the critical role that dispatchable gas plays in balancing variable renewables. Transparent AESO data and independent verification via platforms like ReliableAB provide valuable insights for policymakers and planners. As Alberta navigates its energy transition, aligning policy timelines with realistic deployment of firm low-carbon capacity will be essential to maintain reliability, meet emissions targets and build resilience and stability.

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IPPSA's mission is to convene industry, providing information, resources, and a forum for knowledge sharing, and to create opportunities for dialogue, collaboration, and education. This newsletter is meant to inform members but not advocate for specific outcomes. We always appreciate your feedback at info@ippsa.com.