IPPSA Intelligence

Alberta Electric System Operator 

Alberta's electricity grid planning and tariff design are undergoing stakeholder engagement through multiple deadlines, workshops and rule amendments. Stakeholders can provide feedback by late November on the Optimal Transmission Planning Framework, Large Load Working Group applications, tariff redesign amendments, transmission reinforcement payment methodology and supply system access service.

Sessions scheduled in late November and early December focus on data-centre connection requirements, internal demand rates cost-of-service and benefit-of-service studies, and reliability standards alignment. The AESO’s 2026 Business Plan and Budget Proposal is posted, while the Woodcroft Substation Upgrade secured abbreviated needs approval under ISO Rule 501.3, advancing local transmission capacity.

On November 7, the AESO filed its 2026 ISO tariff update with the Alberta Utilities Commission, proposing adjustments to system access service rates, riders, and generating unit owner contributions, including Rider F. A recent workshop on Real-Time Energy Market ISO rules and allowable dispatch variance yielded draft compliance designs, with revisions to be posted soon for comment.

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Can Alberta’s Grid Handle the AI Boom?

Alberta faces unprecedented electricity demand from proposed AI data centres, with more than 21,000 MW of new load requests—about twice its current transmission capacity—pushing the deregulated, energy-only market to its limits. The Alberta Electric System Operator has capped near-term connections at roughly 1,200 MW while evaluating long-term responses. Developers are exploring behind-the-meter generation, favoring natural gas and stranded gas resources for short-term supply, while geothermal, renewables with storage, and small modular reactors loom as longer-term options.

Since data centres impose steady baseload demands, they challenge a grid optimized for fluctuating loads, prompting consideration of regulatory and market redesign, cost-allocation rules, and “bring your own power” models. Federal incentives, including a $2 billion AI Compute Strategy, a $15 billion green data-centre fund, and a 15% low-carbon tax credit, complement Alberta’s planned hardware levy and corporate credits. 

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AESO Awards Final 230 MW to TransAlta's Keephills

The AESO has granted 230 MW to TransAlta’s Keephills gas plant to support a new AI data centre, marking a slice of its 1,200 MW reserve for large computing loads. With Keephills’ 861 MW capacity converted from coal to natural gas in 2021, this allocation underscores provincial strategy to harness existing generation assets while managing grid reliability.

Remaining developers must now explore off-grid or self-sufficient power options or await new generation and transmission expansions. Initiatives like the Greenlight Electricity Centre, which plans staged additions of gas-fired capacity, illustrate paths for growth. Policymakers face pressure to balance economic gains from AI infrastructure with environmental and grid stability objectives.

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AtkinsRéalis Urges Canada to Buy CANDU to Protect Jobs During Q3 Results

AtkinsRéalis, exclusive licensee of Canada’s CANDU technology and partner on Ontario’s Darlington New Nuclear Project, is pressing governments and utilities to prioritize Canadian reactors to protect manufacturing and engineering jobs. Energy Alberta’s recent MOU with Westinghouse to explore advanced modular reactors highlights growing competition between domestic CANDU and international SMR suppliers, despite Westinghouse’s partial Canadian ownership.

AtkinsRéalis reported robust Q3 results: revenue $2.81 billion (≈15% y/y), profit attributable to shareholders $146.7 million (88¢ diluted) versus $103.7 million (59¢) a year earlier, and nuclear unit sales up 61.7% for the quarter; shares jumped as much as 7.4%. Management raised 2025 nuclear revenue guidance to $2.2–$2.3 billion from $2.0–$2.1 billion, while flagging weaker growth in engineering services.

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ATCO Q3 2025

ATCO reported third-quarter 2025 momentum with adjusted earnings rising to $103 million, a 13% year‑over‑year gain. Canadian Utilities invested $402 million in the quarter, with about 95% directed to regulated utilities (ATCO Energy Systems and ATCO Australia) and roughly 5% into ATCO EnPower, signaling a preference for stable, regulated returns while maintaining selective growth bets in power solutions.

With roughly 21,000 employees and about $28 billion in assets, ATCO’s results underscore diversified, steady growth, heavy capital allocation to regulated infrastructure, selective investments in energy transition capabilities.

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Ottawa fast-tracks $6B North Coast Transmission Line in B.C.

Federal fast-tracking of the North Coast Transmission Line (NCTL) aims to accelerate construction of a roughly $6 billion transmission upgrade in northern British Columbia to twin the Prince George–Terrace corridor and add branches to serve critical-mineral mines and LNG export facilities. Placed on the Major Projects Office list, the phased BC Hydro project intends to begin construction next year while financing talks with the Canada Infrastructure Bank seek low‑cost capital—reports cite a possible $300 million CIB contribution though terms remain unsettled.

Proposed provincial legislation would permit Indigenous communities to take partial ownership of the line, signalling a policy shift toward shared economic benefits and potentially changing project design and consent timelines.

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Legal challenge over Saskatchewan’s decision to keep coal-fired power plants operating

Saskatchewan’s government directed SaskPower to refurbish and operate coal-fired generating units until 2050, prompting a judicial challenge that tests whether courts can review major provincial energy-policy reversals. Applicants  seek a judicial review and an interim stay to block the extension pending a full hearing. 

The judge reserved judgment on whether the challenge can proceed; if not struck, the matter moves to a full lawfulness hearing and could be appealed. The dispute pits provincial autonomy against federal clean‑electricity rules that set a 2029 coal phase‑out, raises intergenerational climate and health concerns, and highlights fiscal tradeoffs in energy planning.

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AB Munis 2025: Equalize Electricity Distribution Charges

At the 2025 Alberta Municipalities convention in Calgary, about 1,200 municipal officials adopted lobbying priorities urging provincial changes to tax collection, local revenue tools and electricity distribution rules. Delegates voted 86% to ask the province to assume direct collection of the education portion of property taxes and 76%‑backed resolution sought optional municipal accommodation taxes.

A third motion, passed by 75%, calls for a review and equalization of electricity distribution charges so costs are shared across Alberta’s integrated grid; debate exposed urban–rural fault lines, with urban councillors warning of cost-shifting onto large population centres and rural delegates pressing fairness for remote communities. Together the resolutions signal municipal pressure for provincial intervention to streamline education tax collection, expand local revenue options and revisit distribution charge design.

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Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

A Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study examines state–level shifts in U.S. retail electricity prices over recent years, noting that although average prices have broadly tracked inflation, many states have experienced sharp departures—either significant price increases or real declines. It identifies a wide range of drivers behind this divergence, including investment in distribution infrastructure, escalation of extreme weather and wildfire risks, changes in load growth, expansions of wind and solar capacity, and dependency on natural gas supplies.

The article notes that rapid data centre growth is emerging as a significant new pressure on electricity demand — particularly in regions hosting clusters of AI and cloud computing facilities. This expansion is straining local grids, driving up wholesale prices, and in some states prompting utilities to delay decarbonization efforts or expand fossil-fuel generation to meet peak loads. 

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‘Phantom’ data centres muddy forecasts for US power needs

The Financial Times reports that U.S. utilities are grappling with a wave of “phantom” data centre projects, as developers flood multiple power providers with speculative requests in search of the lowest electricity rates. This practice has led to bloated grid connection queues and exaggerated demand forecasts, prompting utilities and regulators to tighten policies.

Companies such as AEP Ohio, PG&E, and Dominion are now purging non-viable projects and imposing stricter tariffs that require developers to cover large portions of projected energy costs even if their data centres never materialize. The surge in speculative data centre proposals risks overbuilding costly power infrastructure, potentially raising consumer rates by saddling customers with stranded assets. Grid operators like PJM and the U.S. Energy Department are urging reforms to deter speculative projects, while utilities in key states like Virginia, Illinois, and Texas overhaul pricing structures to ensure that real demand, not hype, drives investment.

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