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I'm Maxim Polyakov, a correspondent for the online magazine ‘7x7’.

Three days ago, Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, signed a new law on mobilization. What will be the response of Russian authorities? A month ago, sources in the Ministry of Defense and Presidential Administration informed journalists at the ‘Verstka’ media outlet about preparations for so-called covert mobilization. According to our colleagues, Russian authorities are seeking individuals willing to go to war in exchange for substantial remuneration. Some regions have already doubled the payouts. In this newsletter, I will analyze whether information from these sources holds true, with the assistance of three specialists: military expert Yuri Fedorov and human rights defenders from the projects ‘Get Lost’ and ‘Conscript's School.’

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Who Joins the Russian Army

Partial mobilization in Russia started in September 2022. According to official data, over 300,000 individuals were deployed to Ukraine. Many of them died, and others are still at the frontlines, over 18 months into the mobilization. Their relatives have started openly and vocally criticizing the authorities for their decisions.

The situation with contracted military personnel is rather different. Those individuals volunteered to go to war, with money often being their main motivation. If they die or stay at the frontlines longer than expected, their relatives' reaction is usually much more reserved.

Authorities soon realized that they may use contracted soldiers to rapidly replenish the army ranks and that their deaths do not lead to public outrage. Russian officials and governors decided to motivate citizens to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense and subsequently increased payouts to military personnel.

During the first week of April 2024, leaders of several Russian regions raised compensation for signing a military contract. The Rostov Oblast Governor increased the payout amount from €5000 to €7000; the head of Krasnodar Krai went further and doubled the initial sum, thus establishing it at €10000.

The Kursk Oblast Governor signed an agreement with the Ministry of Defense to place volunteers at the mobilization reserve. This is a new option for members of volunteer brigades, which mainly exist in border regions. These individuals may join the ‘mobilization manpower reserve’ and get social guarantees as military personnel.

In Yekaterinburg, draft notices were mass-distributed to men with acquired Russian citizenship while they were waiting in line to replace their driver's licenses. They were obliged to register with the military enlistment office. A similar wave of summons distribution had already occurred in several regions in August-September 2023, accompanied by raids targeting men who had recently acquired Russian citizenship. In Chelyabinsk, 15 men were added to the military register. In Krasnoyarsk, 18 residents received summons, and in Belgorod Oblast, 9 individuals were brought to the military enlistment office to be added to the register.

Expert Yuri Fedorov comments, “There is not much meaning to the term ‘covert mobilization,’ as the authorities are not really trying to hide anything. People are being openly drafted and recruited under the decree on ‘partial mobilization,’ which has been in place since September 2022. The Russian army is lacking personnel. Authorities are trying to find men by all means possible: some are being encouraged to voluntarily sign military contracts for payouts, others are being summoned under the decree on ‘partial mobilization.’ There are mercenaries from Africa, Nepal, India. It looks like the losses are really big. These losses must be compensated at all costs, and that’s what both regional officials and military authorities are trying to do.”

Mobilization Without Much Ado

The 'Get Lost' movement emerged shortly after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The project assists Russians who refuse to go to war in Ukraine due to their convictions. Project participants offer consultations to military personnel and deserters, and sometimes help them leave the country. The 'Get Lost' Telegram channel currently has almost 100,000 subscribers.

The project’s representative Ivan Chuvilyayev compares mobilization to COVID-19: much like the virus, it does not disappear, but simply adapts to new conditions. Authorities are trying to make this process as comfortable for them as possible and replenish the army “quietly, peacefully, without much ado.” This strategy targets people experiencing depression, financial difficulties, or complicated relationships with their loved ones.

"It is impossible to casually propose: 'You will die, and we will pay you money for it.' The authorities do it differently: for example, a chairman of the village council says to a local man that he has found a good job opportunity with the Ministry of Defense. Then they slip him a contract which looks like a regular one. The man signs it, and all of a sudden he is taken to a military unit where everyone is getting ready for an attack. We at 'Get Lost' have not seen a single case of a man voluntarily signing a contract without unpleasant consequences. It always ends up in a trick or in loans binding you from head to toes," says Ivan.

However, this strategy has been shifting, as it does not seem to work any longer. The authorities’ rhetoric changes, too. Peskov, Putin, and others are now actively using the word ‘war,’ although previously they insisted on defining the conflict in Ukraine as a ‘special military operation.’ The state has realized that you cannot compose an army of cornered people; they have nothing to lose, so it would be strange to rely on them. They rather pose problems for the Ministry of Defense than solve them, which is why authorities need a new wave of mobilization. Increased payouts, according to the human rights defender, do not prove efficient.

Ivan Chuvilyayev expects everything to change after the end of the compulsory conscription period, which is scheduled for July 15.

“Until this time, authorities can have a break. This is a period when ‘food’ comes directly to their ‘mouth,’ and there is no need for any additional action to lure people into the military service. Then, there will be a phase when they will need to put in some effort. By this time, they will have prepared some dirty trick. It will still be the same mobilization – an open, a slightly covered, a partial one – they may call it whatever they want. But it will definitely be more aggressive, as everything toughens and becomes more complicated. The state has put itself into a position where they cannot do anything but total mobilization,” states the expert.

Alexey Tabalov, the chief of the human rights organization ‘Conscript’s School,’ characterizes the current mobilization as the same it was before, but ‘in a different wrapping.’

“Authorities recruit [soldiers] while there are people willing to go to the frontlines – after persuasion or for big money. At first the payouts were small, then they increased, now the amounts are exorbitant. While there are still volunteers, there is no need to launch a head-on attack and declare mobilization of those unwilling to go to war, as was the case on September 24,” explains Tabalov.

Currently, the most vulnerable groups are people with acquired Russian citizenship, prisoners, debtors, conscripts, Cossacks, and members of volunteer brigades. People may sign contracts in a deranged state, for example, under the influence of alcohol or complex emotions. According to Tabalov, Chelyabinsk Oblast uses a ‘network marketing’ scheme: officers must persuade a certain number of conscripts to sign a military contract, otherwise they will be deployed to frontlines themselves.

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