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I'm Maxim Polyakov, a correspondent for the online magazine ‘7x7’.

Right after the onset of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian authorities significantly intensified internet censorship. In early March 2022, the websites of all independent media reporting on the war were blocked. Subsequently, access to sites covering topics such as the LGBT community, feminism, abortions, and other sensitive subjects was also restricted. During the first two months of 2022, the number of VPN application downloads, which enable users to bypass blockings, increased by 53.5 times. Since then, Russian authorities have been actively fighting these VPN services. For example, a law prohibiting the advertising of VPN solutions came into force on March 1, 2024. In this newsletter, I will explain why the Kremlin fears VPN services and discuss its attempts (so far unsuccessful) to ban them.

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

The Nature of Fear

In 2022, Russian authorities restricted access to over 247,000 internet resources, with another 558,000 being blocked in 2023. About a quarter of all blockings within two years affected websites spreading information about the war, which the state considers 'fake.' Remarkably, in 2023, the number of revealed 'fakes' decreased almost by half. The Prosecutor’s General Office attributes this decline to the blocking of Facebook*, Instagram*, and X (formerly Twitter).

Apart from indefinitely blocking social networks, where people and media outlets may spread information that does not suit the state, authorities occasionally restrict access to messengers or jam internet connections locally. For instance, in January 2024, residents of Yakutia were unable to use WhatsApp or Telegram for four days.

According to the SakhaDay portal, access to messengers might have been restricted due to their use in spreading calls for participating in unauthorized rallies after the murder of a local man. During the January protests over the trial of the ecological activist Fail Alsynov, authorities jammed internet signals near the court and blocked online groups, channels, and websites devoted to public meetings.

On March 1, the day of Alexey Navalny’s funeral, the internet connection was unstable. IT expert Mikhail Klimaryov characterized it as a shutdown.

Pressure Intensifies

Russian officials have promised to completely block VPN services. Mazay Banzaev, the developer of Amnezia VPN, finds this unlikely. Any mobile app, whether it is a VPN service or not, may be blocked only by its official distributor, such as the AppStore or PlayMarket. To restrict access to an app, Russian authorities should send an appropriate request to the store owners, and they will decide whether to honor it or not.

In China, the AppStore complied with the authorities’ requirements and blocked VPN apps. If this happens in Russia, it will be impossible to download a VPN from a third-party source and install it on an iPhone, as the operating system will not allow it. According to Banzaev, Android users are likely to face only minor inconveniences.

"VPN services are already being blocked, these blocks are being successfully bypassed, and new ways to bypass them are already in development," added the expert.

Journalist Andrey Zakharov agrees that a complete shutdown of VPN services and their protocols would require tremendously capable technical means of countering threats (TSPU).

"So far, Roskomnadzor has only made test attempts to impose restrictions, and it is not yet clear whether they will be able to implement it. Of course, their plan presupposes that the blockings should work," Zakharov told '7x7'.

The experts’ doubts have been somewhat confirmed by the TSPU malfunction in late February 2024. Initially, people complained about losing access to their WhatsApp and Telegram accounts. Following that, some users of certain internet providers managed to access Instagram* and Facebook*, which are currently blocked in Russia, without VPN. Kommersant experts attributed this to a TSPU reconfiguration glitch. They believe that unlimited access to blocked resources was restored due to the activation of emergency mode (bypass).

According to Andrey Zakharov, the state of affairs in Ukraine will hardly change enough to force authorities to massively block all channels of communication and VPN services. However, restrictions may be imposed during the presidential elections on March 15-17, 2024. The journalist believes that the blockings may not be large-scale, but rather ‘intense.’

The Chinese Way

The technical director of Roskomsvoboda, Stanislav Shakirov, predicts that within the next two years, Russia will replicate the Chinese model, where all public and commercial VPN services are blocked. This will primarily impact VPN services that use the simplest protocols. The only types of VPNs that will remain accessible are those specifically tailored to the Russian market and designed to combat censorship, or the so-called self-hosted ones.

For a self-hosted VPN to function, users must purchase hosting space and set up their own server. However, this solution is currently feasible mainly for internet-savvy individuals and enthusiasts. Perhaps, in the near future, independent media and activists will start sharing guidelines and explainers on how to set up a self-hosted VPN.

A vast community of experts combatting internet censorship has already formed in Russia. According to Leonid Yuldashev, the program manager at eQualitie, so far the activists manage to find a way to resist blockings and censorship. Each repressive step of Russian authorities is followed by a reciprocal move, which evens out the Kremlin’s efforts.

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