Hello!

I'm Maxim Polyakov, a correspondent for the online magazine ‘7x7’.

 It has been two years since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. During these 24 months, Russian officials have repeatedly attempted to persuade Russian citizens that the quality of life in the country is increasing; however, this claim is false. In this newsletter, I will tell you what has actually happened (spoiler alert: Russians’ living conditions have only worsened).

Estimated reading time: 9 minutes

Sense of Security

I would like to start this letter with a personal story. In 2019, I spent half a year in London as an intern in a large NGO. When I came back to Russia, my friends often asked me about the most exciting or important experience I had had in the United Kingdom. They wondered who I met, where I went, what I saw.

Of course, during those six months, I met many interesting people and visited various unusual places. However, there is one thing that I consider to be the most significant discovery of that period, which I shared with my friends many times:

“The main thing that happened to me in London is that I felt safe during those six months. When I noticed policemen, I did not want to move away from them, as it was in Russia. In Moscow, I often felt anxious and uneasy in the presence of police officers. In London, I frequently returned home late without any discomfort. I realized that if anything happened to me, I would be able to reach out to the media, and they would share my story. I would also be able to escalate my case to court, and the court would take my side, because there is no corruption. I knew that I would be protected by the institutions that have been in place in the United Kingdom for centuries. I think that I haven't ever felt more secure in my life.”

Many people interviewed by ‘7x7’ shared that living in Russia is no longer safe, especially for those who are located near the frontlines. Here is a quote by a ‘7x7’ reader from Voronezh Oblast, the region which has already been affected by Ukrainian drones:

“I live close to the Baltimore [military] airport in Voronezh. First of all, we are often disturbed by aircrafts. For ten years, the airport was closed for reconstruction. After the beginning of the special military operation, planes fly day and night. It is not quite comfortable when fighter jets take off overhead. Predictably, they [the Ukrainians] try to launch a strike on the airport. The air defense system is on, and fragments of missiles may drop on us. We had a drone crashing into a house at night; I heard it happening. Many refused to take their children to kindergarten the following day,” recounted the resident of Voronezh Oblast, which shares a border with the annexed Luhansk Oblast.

Numbers and Statistics

For the past two years, Russian officials have been attempting to conceal statistical data indicating problems in the Russian economy, demographics, and social sphere. Unlike them, I will disclose these numbers to you.

• According to calculations by '7x7', since February 24, 2022, at least 144 civilians have perished in various Russian regions (the data hereinafter is relevant as of February 23, 2024). Most victims (102) resided in Belgorod Oblast.
• Border areas are potentially vulnerable to raids by sabotage groups. To date, there have been more than 10 such attacks. The first incident occurred in March 2023 in Bryansk Oblast. According to Russian authorities, two people were killed in the attack. The boy named Fedya, who sustained a gunshot wound, became a new symbolic figure widely exploited by Russian propaganda. Following the raid, residents of settlements in Bryansk Oblast demanded evacuation. In May 2023, saboteurs infiltrated Belgorod Oblast, resulting in the death of the commander of the Belgorod territorial defense battalion (a civilian combat formation). A few days later, members of the Russian Volunteer Corps invaded Novaya Tavolzhanka village and stayed there for two days. Before the war, the settlement had 5,000 inhabitants.
• As per Memorial, the number of political prisoners in Russia has grown 15 times between 2014 and 2023. This human rights organization has its own criteria for identifying people as political prisoners. However, their registry may be incomplete, for example, due to classified data on state treason cases. ‘OVD-Info’ has found even more people persecuted for their civic position, but their lists may not be exhaustive as well. Grigory Okhotin, co-founder of ‘OVD-Info,’ estimates the number of individuals who can be considered political prisoners as 2,000 at least. The most ‘problematic’ prisoners are being placed in punitive units to prevent them from complaining about their conditions of detention and promptly reaching out to the outside world. A striking example of this form of torture is the case of recently deceased Alexey Navalny, who had spent over 300 days in the punishment cell.
• NGOs and projects perceived as threatening by the state are being squeezed out of civic action. The Russian division of Greenpeace, which fought forest fires, investigated man-made disasters, and prevented authorities from destroying natural landmarks, was designated as an ‘undesirable organization’ and ceased its activities in May 2023. The same fate befell WWF after Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office considered its activities as ‘impeding the implementation of the country’s political program.’ The Free Buryatia foundation, established by journalist Aleksandra Garmazhapova in response to the war, was also recognized as an ‘undesirable organization.’ The foundation activists assist Buryatia residents in avoiding conscription and being deployed to Ukraine. The project Transparency International, which investigated corruption and taught regional activists to disclose power abuse, received the same status, posing a significant hindrance to their operations. Any form of collaboration with an ‘undesirable organization,’ such as participation in its activities, donations, reposts, and shared links, may lead to administrative or criminal charges.
• It has become much more difficult to provide students with quality higher education or for students to obtain it. After the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russian universities were excluded from the Bologna education system used in Europe. Eventually, Russian universities themselves decided to withdraw from this system. As a result, Russian students have been deprived of international exchanges, but this is not their only loss. It has become much more difficult to change specialties when beginning master's studies. Moreover, Russian diplomas, which had a rather low value abroad even before the war, will be recognized only by a limited number of countries. Entrance to and successful completion of university studies are no longer the only concerns for students. They also must be extremely cautious if they do not want to be expelled because of activism, an anti-war stance, or a male-led blog on makeup. Ideological purges, which began after rallies in support of Navalny a few years ago, continue unabated. Two master candidates, Daniil and Bogdan, were expelled from Tomsk Polytechnic University: one for being detained at the demonstration against mobilization, the other for being arrested at an unauthorized rally against the war in Ukraine. Timofey Chizhov, a native of Krasnoyarsk, who studied at the Siberian State University of Science and Technology, was expelled following a denunciation. He had a dispute about the war in Ukraine with one of the university staff members.
• In 2024, Russians may have children only within conventional heterosexual couples. They are encouraged to have at least two kids and give birth before graduating from university (or instead of graduation). Other forms of relationships are either at risk or explicitly prohibited by law. Constant limitations may lead to a surge of psychological and other issues among certain groups. LGBT is recognized as an extremist movement in Russia, as is the very image of a rainbow. Gender transitions are banned, and events with sexual undertones are being interrupted. In December 2023, the Kurgansk division of the ‘Tsargrad’ movement demanded to prohibit the theater performance ‘Breath In, Breath Out,’ based on the play by Yulia Tupikina, which highlights the problems faced by teenagers, in particular bullying. Throughout the autumn months, school children could see the performance in the local cultural center. ‘Tsargrad’ movement members claimed that it ‘promotes sodomy.’ “The war has heavily affected me as a person: it startled me, forcibly changed me, embittered me. By 2022, I had already abandoned all hopes of undergoing a physical gender transition, and February 2022 clearly demonstrated that there are things bigger than gender dysphoria,” shared a transgender reader with ‘7x7.’

What Will Happen Next

Several years ago, my colleague Sergey Smirnov, the editor-in-chief of the popular media outlet ‘Mediazona,’ which primarily covers court proceedings, prisons, and repression, said a phrase that eventually became a meme. He declared, ‘It will get worse.’ This was his prediction regarding the fate of Russian liberties. Many initially perceived it as a joke, but Sergey was serious.

As we are witnessing now, repressions show no sign of abating; instead, they are escalating, with repressive laws being adopted at an almost cosmic speed. I harbor no optimism for the months ahead. Furthermore, I believe that by the year's end, we will witness the transition from targeted repressions against dissenting Russians to mass ones. It will get worse.

© Copyright, online journal "7х7"