IPPSA Intelligence

AESO

Alberta’s electricity sector is navigating pivotal market design and grid planning initiatives through forthcoming workshops, procurement decisions and regulatory consultations. Fast Frequency Response Plus (FFR+) procurement is being refined based on stakeholder feedback, driving the timing of cost-allocation workshops that will determine how ancillary services expenses are assigned.

Transmission reinforcements and connection-process amendments will be debated in late October sessions, influencing how network upgrades and payments are managed for new and existing users.

The recently filed Needs Identification Document for the Edmonton Carbon Capture project underscores growing integration of carbon capture, utilization and storage into transmission planning, signaling opportunities for industrial decarbonization.

Published 2026 loss factors and a 4.72% Rider E adjustment will alter system access charges, requiring generators and large consumers to reassess budgets and billing models.

A mid-complexity reliability standards review and a broader tariff redesign consultation invite stakeholder input through late December, shaping compliance obligations and cost recovery frameworks. Engagement opportunities, including a budget Q&A and an optimal transmission planning forum, provide channels for participants to influence policy outcomes.

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Hyperscale Data Centres Could Boost Alberta’s Natural Gas Demand

Alberta’s push to host hyperscale data centres is reshaping its energy landscape. Pembina Pipeline and Kineticor Asset Management secured 907 MW of transmission capacity from the Alberta Electric System Operator, positioning clients to tap grid power as soon as 2027 without undermining reliability. To support the anticipated load, Pembina proposes the Greenlight Electricity Centre, a combined-cycle gas-fired plant to deliver up to 1,800 MW long term, starting with a 900 MW first phase slated for a first-half next-year final investment decision.

Estimated at roughly $3 billion, the initial build could take four years and boost natural gas demand by 160–200 million cubic feet per day, potentially doubling if fully expanded. The steady, 24/7 power needs of data centres promise new domestic gas markets that may shore up prices and spur additional drilling.  Confirmation of an anchor hyperscaler tenant remains pending, but a secured deal would signal Alberta’s viability and prompt follow-on investments, affecting provincial gas consumption, grid planning and technology supply chains.

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KALiNA Completes Sale of Alberta MW Allocations After AESO DTS Execution

Rapid growth in data centres is driving demand for co-located, behind-the-meter generation in Alberta, where KALiNA Power’s Canadian arm finalized a transfer of previously allocated capacity rights. Execution of a demand transmission services agreement with the Alberta Electric System Operator unlocked a CAD17 million milestone payment, supplementing a CAD1 million deposit secured earlier.

The deal transfers megawatts to a global data centre developer via Greenlight Electricity Centre, while confidentiality clauses obscure customer identity and contract specifics. KALiNA’s portfolio includes five planned natural gas-fired, behind-the-meter power plants totaling 1.7 GW, reflecting industry trends toward localized, reliable supply for energy-intensive loads. By monetizing capacity assignments through the Alberta Electric System Operator’s Interim Large Load Connection Limit Assignment Process, KALiNA achieves liquidity and reduces developmental risk tied to those megawatts, although it forgoes future generation revenue on that tranche.

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Bright Meadows Solar Approved

Revolve Renewable Power Corp.’s 15.7 MW Bright Meadows Solar Project, approved by the Alberta Utilities Commission, is set to begin construction in 2026 in Wetaskiwin County. Designed with agrivoltaics, the facility will maintain agricultural operations beneath elevated panels while generating enough electricity for some 3,700 homes. Although modest in scale compared with utility-scale arrays, its agrivoltaic model demonstrates how clean-power deployments can coexist with agricultural land use.

The approval not only reinforces provincial policy encouraging renewables but may also catalyze further investment in clean-energy infrastructure across the region. As Alberta diversifies its energy mix, smaller solar developments like Bright Meadows play a crucial role by blending environmental stewardship with economic and grid-security objectives.

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PG&E Pledges $73 Billion by 2030 to Modernize Transmission Grid

PG&E plans a $73 billion transmission overhaul by 2030 to modernize its grid and accommodate roughly 10 GW of anticipated new demand from data centers powering AI workloads. The program blends capacity expansion with targeted reliability measures—driven in part by prior wildfire liabilities—such as building nearly 700 miles of underground lines and broader modernization to reduce outages and safety risks. The investment responds to forecasts of record U.S. electricity use in 2025–26, signaling utilities’ need to scale infrastructure quickly as AI and cloud computing concentrate load.

Economically, the scale raises questions about rate impacts, capital returns, and regulatory scrutiny, while creating opportunities for contractors, equipment suppliers, and grid-technology vendors. 

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Minnesota PUC Approves $6.2B BlackRock-Led Takeover of Minnesota Power

Minnesota regulators unanimously approved a $6.2 billion acquisition of Allete, parent of Minnesota Power, by a BlackRock subsidiary and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board after negotiated safeguards and more than $100 million in commitments for ratepayer relief and clean-energy investment. The utility, serving about 150,000 customers with coal, gas, wind and solar assets, faces a state mandate for 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040; supporters argue the buyers provide access to capital needed to finance that transition.

Opponents—including the state attorney general, large industrial customers and consumer advocates—warn private-equity-style ownership could prioritize profit, raise bills, reduce accountability and shift costs to residential users, especially if big new loads such as data centers materialize. Regulators added conditions intended to limit rate impacts and protect public interest after revisions brokered with the Department of Commerce. The unanimous vote, despite an administrative law judge’s earlier recommendation to reject the deal, sets a precedent for pension and asset-manager ownership of regional utilities under strict oversight.

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Brookfield Raises US$20B for Largest Global Transition Fund, Highlighting Strong Institutional Demand and Policy Headwinds in Renewables

Brookfield Asset Management has raised roughly US$20 billion for its BAM‑T Global Transition Fund II (about US$23.5 billion including co‑investments), exceeding targets and becoming the largest private transition fund. Building on a US$15 billion predecessor, the new vehicle has already deployed over US$5 billion into renewables, battery storage and other transition technologies and signed corporate energy supply deals with Microsoft and Google.

The fundraising underscores a wider shift: the IEA estimates about US$2.2 trillion is allocated this year to renewables, nuclear, grids, low‑emission fuels and electrification, while Zero Carbon Analytics reports a 10% rise in renewables investment in H1 2025 to a record US$386 billion. IEA projections still see global renewable capacity roughly doubling by 2030 (≈4,600 GW), led by solar, though it trimmed near‑term growth forecasts about 5% amid policy changes.

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Red Deer County Approves AI Data Centre

Red Deer County approved a water-less, ultra-low-noise AI data centre on a 120‑acre Blindman Industrial Park site, anchored by an onsite heat-and-power plant and designed for minimal staffing. Phase 1 comprises a nearly 10,800‑sq‑ft modular data hall and a 5,000‑sq‑ft administration building, with roughly five to seven employees; construction is slated to begin in 2025 and finish in 2026.

Council responses were mostly positive, though one councillor opposed approval over unclear plans for future expansion. The large site leaves room for subsequent phases potentially adding more data centres, vertical farming, research and education facilities, and telecom/fibre infrastructure, raising energy and land‑use considerations.

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OPG Opens Port Hope Nuclear Discovery Centre to Engage Public.

Ontario Power Generation is opening the Port Hope Nuclear Discovery Centre as a public hub to inform and engage communities about nuclear energy and the company’s consideration of new generation at the Wesleyville site. A media grand opening is set for Oct. 10, 2025, with public access beginning Oct. 14; provincial and local elected officials, including the Minister of Energy and Mines and an MPP, will participate.

OPG frames the Centre as part of its broader low‑carbon strategy and portfolio, using exhibits, outreach and tours to explain technical, environmental and community impacts of potential projects.

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Canada’s Green Hydrogen Gamble

Canada’s push to export “green” hydrogen to Europe relies on heavy government supports and an optimistic reading of market and technological realities. The Canada–Germany Hydrogen Alliance and a 40% Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit (ITC), loans and grants aim to underwrite large ammonia-shipping projects, yet distance, conversion losses and export logistics can halve delivered energy and raise lifecycle emissions.

The article urges pausing further export-focused subsidies, tightening commercial viability tests, and fixing lifecycle accounting to avoid locking in inefficient technologies, mitigate fiscal risk, and ensure genuine climate benefits. Policymakers should reallocate support toward domestic decarbonization, transmission buildout, and flexible demand measures that improve competitiveness and reduce stranded-asset risks in coming years.

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How AI and LNG Could Transform Alberta's Struggling Natural Gas Market

Wish Bakshi argues that Alberta’s chronically low natural gas prices, driven by a disconnect between AECO and U.S. benchmarks, are turning gas production into loss-making operations. AECO has at times plunged to negative prices, leaving producers effectively paying to dispose of gas. Comparable situations in Texas’s Waha Hub have shown how oversupply and pipeline constraints can be reversed into value by building demand-side infrastructure: gas-fired generation sited alongside AI data centres and investment in LNG export capacity.

The piece argues Alberta can replicate that pivot, using AI-driven efficiencies to optimize production and consumption, and developing LNG and power projects to monetize stranded gas. Strategic deployment—combining local gas-fired power for compute hubs, liquefaction for export, and AI for operational optimization—could close the price gap, improve royalty capture and fund public infrastructure.

The author projects substantial upside, citing potential multibillion-dollar royalty gains if policy, investment and pipeline planning align. Achieving this requires coordinated policy reforms, capital allocation to LNG and power build-out, and active industry-government collaboration. 

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Indigenous Leaders and Politicians Challenge Chalk River Nuclear Waste Site

A proposal to build a near‑surface nuclear waste disposal facility at Chalk River, about 180 km northwest of Ottawa, has sparked legal, Indigenous and political opposition. The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission approved construction in 2024, but federal courts earlier found Canadian Nuclear Laboratories failed to fulfil duty‑to‑consult obligations and inadequately protected species at risk. CNL seeks judicial review, while Kebaowek First Nation’s appeal reached the Federal Court of Appeal. 

The outcome of the upcoming appeal could set precedent on duty‑to‑consult standards, species‑at‑risk protections and regulatory responsibility for energy and nuclear projects, potentially forcing stronger consultations, design changes or stricter safeguards.

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The Cost of Environmental Idealism

Heather Exner‑Pirot argues that the Trudeau‑era green policy framework prioritized environmental ideology over economic pragmatism, empowering a legal‑bureaucratic system and publicly subsidized ENGOs to use litigation and procedural tactics that slow or block resource and energy projects. It claims federal environmental protection spending rose 381% from 2015–2023 and points to a trio of audits including an ECCC grants‑and‑contributions audit, the CESD’s review of the Net Zero Accelerator, and the Auditor General’s report on SDTC as evidence of weak oversight and waste.

The paper situates these trends within an “ideology of scarcity” and notes an emerging rebalancing abroad. It recommends rationalizing assessment frameworks; reducing and scrutinizing ENGO/program funding; limiting groups largely financed by Ottawa; imposing public‑sector‑equivalent transparency; exploring stricter standing, tighter timelines, and higher evidentiary thresholds; and shifting to a “politics of abundance” focused on building and growth.

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